[E4077] GS recommends geographical diversification as an attractive strategy for managing AI disruption risk. TMT exposure is typically lower in non-US equity markets and tends to be more hardware-focused, with such markets also offering more capital-heavy sector opportunities. Within European Financials, LSEG and CVC stand out as attractive opportunities.
[E4017] South Korea exports are 'absolutely booming' and Japan Machine Tool Orders continue to firm — both confirming global manufacturing cycle acceleration. Global Semiconductor Sales have exploded to fastest YoY growth rate since 2009. Empire Manufacturing ripped to highest since February 2023, with CapEx intentions central to 2026 thesis.
[E3930] Periods of elevated US policy uncertainty often weaken confidence in domestic growth leadership. When that occurs alongside a softening dollar, international equities can begin to outperform US benchmarks on relative basis. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has risen meaningfully, approaching levels coinciding with late-cycle stress and geopolitical uncertainty. Over the past year, the dollar has trended lower, coinciding with improved relative performance from international equities versus US indices.
[E3863] Investor positioning shows strong regional divergence: Emerging Markets at +61 with particular strength in Korea (+71) and China (+47). Japan at +69 supports DM (+14). US positions are slipping towards risk-off (-7). Within Eurozone: France deeply risk-off at -25, while Germany (+18) and Italy (+11) remain risk-on.
[E3905] Investor positioning shows clear regional divergence. Emerging Markets are strongly risk-on (+61), particularly Korea (+71) and China (+47). Developed Markets are risk-on (+14) mainly due to Japan (+69). US positions are slipping towards risk-off (-7), while UK (+12) and Eurozone (+5) are trending lower. Within EZ, France is notably risk-off (-25) while Germany (+18) and Italy (+11) are risk-on.
[E3815] Europe faces 'existential threat' from Chinese competition per France's HCSP analysis. The cost gap of 30-40% threatens 'entire segments of European industry with complete collapse within a few years.' Germany lost 240,000 industrial jobs in last two years. HCSP proposes either 30% tariff on Chinese goods or 30% euro depreciation against renminbi as 'shock' protectionist responses.
[E3843] Swiss franc's 'relentless rise' (+3% YTD, +14% in 2025) to 0.77SFr/USD is 'undermining competitiveness' of Swiss exporters where exports are >70% of GDP. Roche and Swatch report ~5% sales hits from currency. SNB at 0% rates faces dilemma — swaps traders price 30% chance of negative rates this year. UBS estimates 1% franc gain = 0.9% profit hit for Swiss companies.
[E3842] Japan's PM Takaichi won historic supermajority (316 of 465 seats, 70%) and faces opportunity to transform defenses and diplomacy. She has accelerated defense spending to 2% of GDP from planned 2027 timeline. Japan should spearhead efforts to link CPTPP and EU (creating trade bloc >30% of global output) while maintaining Trump relationship — as Abe did after first Trump term abandoned TPP.
[E3686] BCA holds multiple regional equity rotation trades: short TOPIX vs DAX (-6.7% since Jan 2026), long Swiss SMI vs FTSE 100 (flat since Nov 2025), long MSCI India vs MSCI Developed World (-5.6% since Sep 2025), and long CAC 40 vs Eurostoxx 50 (-19.3% since Aug 2023). Also structural long Stoxx Europe 600 vs S&P 500 (-18.6% since Feb 2023).
[E3629] Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) operates the only US uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion facility (Metropolis Works, Illinois). Legacy contracts at $20/kgU are rolling off and repricing at $60+/kgU — roughly 3x pricing uplift. $2B backlog. Cost per kgU identical at $13-16, so entire price difference flows to EBITDA. AES margins set to explode to 60%. Current segment valued at ~7.6x EV/EBITDA vs LEU at 33x.
[E3636] Hexcel (HXL US) is purest Western aerospace-grade carbon fiber play with 93% aero/defense revenue mix at 17x EV/EBITDA. Guiding 2026 for 8% revenue growth with 25% earnings growth. When OEMs achieve production targets, generates ~$500M incremental annual revenue. Space optionality underpriced: SpaceX flew 165 missions in 2025, global launch cadence growing 20-25% annually, yet Space & Defense estimates flat.
[E3630] Asahi Kasei (3407 JP) has two emerging chokepoints: PIMEL photosensitive polyimide for HBM/AI accelerator packaging and Q Glass quartz fabric for next-gen CCLs. May 2025 panic when rumors emerged of PIMEL supply cut. Asahi invested ¥16B to double capacity. Q Glass uses 99.9% silica offering significant performance jump for M9-grade CCLs entering production H2 2026.
[E3518] NOR flash supply is tightening with prices increasing as TSMC and Samsung cut 8-inch capacity. TrendForce projects 8-inch output decline in 2026. Macronix (2337 TT) reduced NOR production to increase MLC NAND output, with reports of ~30% NOR price hike in Q1 2026. Samsung's MLC end-of-life announcement (March 2025, final shipments June 2026) drives global MLC NAND capacity down ~41.7% YoY in 2026.
[E3517] Taiwan legacy memory names Nanya Technology (2408 TT), Winbond (2344 TT), and ESMT (3006 TT) are rallying as DDR4 faces severe global shortages — at one point trading at a premium to DDR5. Memory buyers engaged in panic buying in Q1. DDR4 pricing could rise through Q1, Q2, and potentially Q3 with double-digit quarterly increases as supply tightness spills over to DDR3.
[E3361] HAUZ (International Real Estate ETF) recommended for non-US real estate equity exposure with geographic concentration in Japan (24%), Australia (13%), Hong Kong (7%), Singapore, and Canada across ~30 countries. The ETF functions as an interest rate-carry vehicle where REIT cash flows are more sensitive to yield changes and returns translated back to USD.
[E3487] Japan's strategy is sequential: Phase 1 (current) is repair via steeper curve restoring bank profitability and capital buffers. Phase 2 is substitution where banks absorb more JGB issuance, BOJ slows balance sheet expansion. Phase 3 is transmission where banks reallocate to lending, credit grows, velocity rises. Capital already flowing to equities; CapEx comes later.
[E3448] Japan is executing a managed regime transition, not losing control. JGB yields moved from 1.65% to 2.35% but no failed auctions, no bid-ask blowouts, no repo stress. Japan is a net saver economy where higher rates deliver positive income shock to private sector (banks, insurers, pensions). Mark-to-market losses are accounting entries, not funding crises — held-to-maturity classification insulates banks.
[E3331] Vale has trained generations of engineers, geologists, and operators in running high-throughput, low-grade operations across complex logistics. That expertise is being redeployed into rare earths, copper, and AI-adjacent minerals. Brazil's industrial workforce is already AI-integrated with predictive maintenance, autonomous fleets, and optimization algorithms delivering efficiency gains. Dense ecosystem of drillers and geophysicists can move from AI-generated targets to drilled resources on compressed timelines.
[E3323] Brazil enters this cycle with consensus expectations for policy rates to fall materially over 12-24 months while inflation remains anchored. For data centers, transmission lines, rare-earth processing, and grid-scale storage — all long-duration, capital-intensive assets — even modest real rate declines materially expand feasible project pipelines and unlock equity re-rating potential.
[E3322] Visser frames Brazil as a structural alpha opportunity for the AI decade, not a cyclical commodity beta play. The thesis rests on four converging pillars: declining real rates from restrictive levels, renewable energy abundance with surplus capacity, rare-earth mineral leverage as non-China alternative, and institutional depth from Vale-trained engineering talent. Brazil is positioned as a 'host economy for AI itself.'
[E3325] Brazil offers a layered incentive stack for Green Compute including tax relief, accelerated depreciation, and long-tenor development-bank financing for grid-linked projects. For hyperscalers and infrastructure investors, these incentives materially improve after-tax project IRRs relative to equivalent builds in power-constrained OECD markets, even before accounting for Brazil's lower levelized cost of energy.
[E3255] Global Atomic advancing Dasa uranium project in Niger with underground development extended, major earthworks complete, targeting H2/27 commissioning. Financing review with U.S. development bank at investment committee stage for potential $295M debt funding. Completed C$72.5M equity financing in 2025. Price target raised from C$1.50 to C$1.75 despite 0.32x P/NAV discount.
[E3254] Ur-Energy's Lost Creek ramping toward 1.0-1.2 million lb U3O8/year nameplate, with Shirley Basin commissioning and initial production targeted early 2026 adding ~1.0 million lb/year incremental capacity. Company strengthened balance sheet with $120M senior unsecured convertible note financing for final Shirley Basin CAPEX (~$15M remaining).
[E3253] Energy Fuels exceeded 2025 uranium expectations: mined >1.6 million lb U3O8, produced >1.0 million lb finished U3O8 at White Mesa mill. Also advancing REE strategy with Vara Mada HMS Feasibility Study (after-tax NPV10% $1.4B) and White Mesa REE Phase 2 expansion (after-tax NPV7.5% $1.2B), plus pending ~$299M acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials.
[E3252] enCore Energy's South Texas ISR operations continue ramping with Q3/25 reporting 227,000 lb U3O8 extracted (+11% Q/Q), 130,000 lb delivered at $68.28/lb, with unit costs ~$38.35/lb. Company acquired 6.0% stake (22.5M shares) in rival Ur-Energy on Dec 18, 2025. Price target raised from $3.25/C$4.50 to $5.50/C$7.75.
[E3251] Denison Mines' Wheeler River Phoenix project remains construction-ready with final federal approvals and FID expected near-term, supporting 2026 construction and mid-2028 initial production. Despite CAPEX increase to ~C$653M (vs. C$487M in 2023 FS), project economics remain resilient. Company holds ~C$715M in cash and physical uranium inventory covering significant upfront CAPEX.
[E3250] Cameco positioned as 'one stop shop' for nuclear power thematic exposure, vertically integrated across uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication. Cantor expects further multiple expansion as institutional interest in uranium and nuclear power grows. Price target raised from $120/C$160 to $140/C$185 with target multiple increase from 3.25x to 3.75x NAVPS.
[E3257] Energy Fuels exceeded uranium expectations in 2025, mining >1.6 million lbs U3O8 and producing >1.0 million lbs of finished product at White Mesa mill (Utah). Trading at 2.16x P/NAV versus coverage average, with 3.0x NAVPS target multiple. Price target modestly increased to $34.00/C$47.00 from $33.00/C$46.00, reflecting both uranium performance and diversified REE critical minerals strategy.
[E3119] NFTs and trophy assets (fine wine, luxury watches) follow the same liquidity cycle as crypto. Fine wine correlates with Fed Net Liquidity, and Bitcoin leads fine wines. NFT users worldwide correlate with crypto market cap and secondhand luxury watch demand. The authors are buying XCOPY and Beeple as long-term stores of value, recycling Solana gains into trophy assets.
[E3173] Gov. Miran drew direct parallel between Greece's recovery (product market liberalisation, licensing ease, professional restrictions removed, airport/port privatisation) and US deregulation trajectory. Trump's executive order 'Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation' requires 10 regulations abolished for each new one. Based on 2025 pace, 30% of Code of Federal Regulations restrictions could be eliminated by 2030.
[E3076] International equities are key 2026 theme as 'US exceptionalism flips to global rebalancing.' Emerging markets up 5.4% YTD with Korea +11.1%, Turkey +11.9%, Taiwan +6.9%. EM stocks have delivered 104% average returns during five historical dollar bear markets. Potential $1.5tn capital outflow risk if non-US allocators cut US stock and Treasury holdings by just 5%.
[E2971] CACIB recommends receiving repo IRS in 2Y or 1Y1Y given limited market pricing of PBoC rate cuts compared to their 10-20bp cut forecast. They recommend buying 5Y CGB on dips in 1.65-1.70% range with attractive roll-down. Balanced bond market supply-demand dynamics expected with net government bond supply rising only 7% YoY to RMB14.8trn after 23% increase in 2025.
[E3014] Ukraine ceasefire talks show major progress with US envoy Witkoff indicating negotiations 'down to one last issue' on 22 Jan. Credible steps toward deal would have market implications including possible easing of Russia sanctions, increased Ukrainian agriculture exports, and reconstruction investments in minerals, gas infrastructure, technology, data centres and AI.
[E2988] MoF likely to accelerate consumption tax reform in 2026 to boost local fiscal revenues. Reform could shift consumption tax from central to shared central-local tax and change collection from production to retail stage. Consumption tax is China's fourth-largest tax category at ~8% of fiscal revenue. This would encourage local spending toward demand-side stimulus.
[E3075] Hartnett recommends long China to position for 'end of China deflation & potential political change.' Hang Seng chart shows long-term structural underperformance with potential reversal. Record $60.5bn China equity outflow attributed to 'national team' selling to cool speculation — interpreted as positioning for managed 'slow bull' rather than bearish signal.
[E2961] CACIB recommends dip-buying in the short end and belly of China's CGB curve given PBoC's continued easing. They entered a trade to go long 5Y swap spread at -19bp on January 22. 10Y CGB yields expected range-bound moving moderately lower in H1 before mild rebound to 1.85% by end-2026. The 30Y-10Y spread likely to widen to 45-50bp.
[E3100] Hartnett explicitly recommends long midcap stocks as 'best plays for Main St boom & MAGA manufacturing renaissance.' Buy any retracement to new floors: Midcap 400 at 3333 and Smallcap 600 at 1500. Small caps positioned to benefit from weak dollar policy aimed at rustbelt swing states.
[E2867] UBS highlights Venezuela developments following US operations on January 3 transferring Maduro to face charges. Countries aligned with US objectives — Panama, Dominican Republic, Argentina — are positioned to benefit from engagement and greater stability. Nations with complex US relations including Colombia and Brazil face more uncertain environment, especially ahead of elections. Mexico's deep trade integration makes major disruption unlikely.
[E2677] Every outlines US strategy offering a development model to aligned economies: 'for our partner nations to build up their domestic economies' while 'an economically stronger and more sophisticated Western Hemisphere becomes an increasingly attractive market for American commerce and investment.' This includes increased US FDI via export-credit financing resembling a US rival to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
[E2769] UBS notes US consumers purchase around 16 million light vehicles annually, of which just over 60% are assembled domestically — down from 70-80% in the 1990s. This likely represents a trough given policy focus to boost domestic manufacturing with tariffs and trade policies. The renewed focus on reshoring aims to harden supply chains, improve military readiness, and achieve national industrial policy goals.
[E2806] Citi is structurally bullish aluminium with a $3,500/t base case for 2026 and $4,200/t bull case for 2028. They remain 'convicted medium-term aluminium bulls' while neutral on copper beyond three months at $13k/t. Aluminium supply growth is limited by China's capacity cap and power availability constraints.
[E2836] Tin has 30% probability of exceeding $60k/t on scarcity pricing in a bull scenario. The market is exposed to strong structural demand from solar and data centers, leveraged to global cyclical growth, with high policy-led disruption risks (Indonesia, Myanmar, DR Congo, Nigeria). Greater risk of scarcity pricing than copper given modest inventories and muted supply elasticity.
[E2838] Zinc can rally with base metals near-term but faces widening surplus in 2026 and 2027 as supply growth surpasses demand. Base case is $3,000/t average for 2026, declining to $2,800/t by Q4. Bull case $3,400/t, bear case $2,500-2,700/t.
[E2869] UBS notes diplomatic efforts toward Ukraine ceasefire have intensified but significant divisions persist. Progress toward a truce would likely improve economic sentiment in Europe and market sentiment toward European assets. Potential benefits include Ukraine reconstruction, improved hydrocarbon supply, lower energy prices, and possible easing of Russia sanctions — though positive Eurozone economic impact over 2-3 years likely to be modest even with sustainable ceasefire.
[E2870] South Korea equities up 19.7% YTD total return (USD) with 15.3% EPS growth and 51.1% weight in MSCI EM. Taiwan equities up 11.1% YTD with 21.6% EPS growth and 21.4% MSCI EM weight. Both markets benefiting from AI value chain positioning in chip and memory production. Korea trading at 11.1x P/E vs 10.4x 10-year average; Taiwan at 20.0x vs 14.9x average reflecting tech premium.
[E2871] Turkey added to recommended high-yielding currency basket. Turkish banks set for further margin expansion amid expected policy rate cuts. TRY showing orthodox policies supporting disinflation and rebuilt FX reserves. Turkey equities up 18.8% YTD with 53.8% EM weight, trading at 6.8x P/E (cheapest in EM) vs 6.1x 10-year average. High real yields make TRY appealing from carry perspective.
[E2872] South Africa equities up 14.7% YTD total return with 26.4% MSCI EM weight. ZAR included in recommended high-yielding currency basket. SA structural reforms meeting improving terms of trade from commodity rally. SA equities trading at 11.7x P/E vs 11.5x 10-year average with 2.5% dividend yield and 4.1% EPS growth. Local currency government debt up 5.2% YTD.
[E2845] UBS favors Brazilian equities after strong low-to-mid double-digit rally, seeing continued benefits from favorable global risk environment, diversification demand, softer dollar, and lower rates encouraging rotation from bonds to equities. Valuations below 10x forward earnings appear unjustified. Warns volatility may rise in H2 2026 on election dynamics and fiscal concerns.
[E2854] UBS favors India equities supported by resilient earnings, robust real growth, and supportive policies. Also favors Indonesia despite recent volatility from MSCI frontier reclassification concerns. Indonesia offers strong dividend yields, attractive valuations, and improving earnings trends. Base case expects timely solution with MSCI.
[E2855] UBS favors diversified basket of high-yielding EM currencies including BRL, MXN, INR, ZAR, TRY, and EGP. Three key supportive factors: elevated nominal and real yields with EM central banks cutting against Fed also lowering rates; resilient global growth at trend levels; and EM diversification appeal with robust buffers. South Africa benefits from structural reforms meeting improving commodity terms of trade.
[E2861] Venezuela developments highlight Washington's willingness to act decisively in Latin America. Countries aligned with US objectives (Panama, Dominican Republic, Argentina) positioned to benefit from continued engagement and stability. Nations with complex US relations (Colombia, Brazil) face uncertain environment, especially ahead of elections. Mexico's deep trade integration makes major disruption unlikely.
[E2322] International stocks up 4.5% YTD, outperforming US stocks at 1.0%. Europe equities saw 6 consecutive weeks of inflows, strongest since Jun 2025. Japan equities had $2.2bn inflow, biggest since Oct 2025. 'New secular bull in International stocks in year two driven by end of deflation in Europe, Japan, China + Trump forcing Europe, Japan fiscal excess in 2020s.'
[E2349] ISG recommends shifting 1.5% from non-US developed equities to emerging markets excluding China strategically. EM ex-China offers higher profitability (14.2% ROE vs China's 11.4%), better balance sheets (7.0x interest coverage vs 6.3x), and 29% technology sector exposure vs EAFE's 5%. China is the only major EM trading expensive relative to fundamentals.
[E2315] Hartnett recommends 'Long Detroit, short Davos' — overweight small/mid caps versus large caps through 2027. Small cap vs large cap relative 10-year annualized returns at -3.2%, only worse in 1956 and 1999 in past century. Decade-to-date flows show $1.6tn to US large cap vs $6.1bn outflow from small cap. GLD, GNR, EEM, MDY, IJR are favored beneficiaries of 'Anything But Bonds' in 2026.
[E2579] Applying comparable valuations to Jubilee's projected Christmas 2026 run rate suggests significant undervaluation. At 2x revenue multiple on $200M revenue = $400M valuation (~10p/share vs 4p current). At 6x EBITDA on $65M = $390M (~9.5p/share). This excludes zero-value-ascribed assets: 240Mt LWP resource (~$240M at $1/tonne in situ), 25,000 hectares of prospective ground, $50M deferred payments, £40M Tjate platinum project, and Kabwe zinc/lead assets.
[E2578] The Large Waste Project (LWP) represents a 240 million tonne surface resource opportunity that could ultimately dwarf Jubilee's other operations. Partnership discussions are well advanced with a partner that has processing capacity. Structure: Jubilee builds modular processing units, partner funds them, Jubilee produces copper in solution and receives royalty. Each 25,000 tonnes/month module should generate ~5,000 tonnes/year copper production (~$50M revenue at current prices).
[E2525] USMCA review identified as significant catalyst for Mexico nearshoring. Trump administration views Mexico as integral to Western hemisphere manufacturing return. Argentina, Chile, and Mexico shifting from populism, adjusting to US geopolitics. Korea positioned to win up to 39% of global nuclear market.
[E2577] Jubilee secured 25,000 hectares in the greater Molefe district, with Chinese competitors having grabbed nearly every other available prospective ground in the area. Management used historical information to select license areas where copper is exposed on surface. The Galileo partnership covers only the initial 400-hectare mining license, leaving significant expansion optionality for Jubilee.
[E2576] Molefe mine restarted in September 2025 after Pit 2 expansion, delivering 1,122 tonnes ore in Q1, ramping to 3,500 tonnes/month in October and 4,500 tonnes/month in November. Management targets 8,500 tonnes/month by end of Q3 FY26. A 2.2 million tonne low-grade stockpile (~0.7% copper) is growing at 70,000 tonnes/month, awaiting processing modules scheduled to begin construction April-May 2026.
[E2575] Management stated at the AGM that Sable and Roan together will produce at a run rate equivalent to ~20,000 tonnes/year by Christmas 2026. This is faster than Archer's August thesis, which called for 20,000-25,000 tonnes within 3-5 years. The acceleration is driven by Molefe alone potentially filling Sable's 14,000 tonne/year capacity, rather than needing both Molefe and Project G.
[E2574] Jubilee's Q1 FY26 copper production hit 938 tonnes, up 65% from 568 tonnes in Q4 FY25. The annualized run rate of ~3,750 tonnes already exceeds entire FY25 production of 2,211 tonnes. Management guides to 4,500-5,100 tonnes for full FY26, representing more than doubling year-on-year. Archer sees the production inflection point as validating the capital investment program.
[E2586] Molefe mine restarted September 2025 after Pit 2 expansion. Delivered 1,122 tonnes ore to Sable in Q1, ramped to 3,500 tonnes/month in October, then 4,500 tonnes/month in November. Targeting 8,500 tonnes/month high-grade ore (2-2.5% copper) by end Q3 FY26. This execution — zero to 4,500 tonnes/month within two months — demonstrates operational capability.
[E2573] Jubilee's transformation is now complete with South African chrome/PGM operations sold for up to $90M. Company has banked $25M cash ($15M advance + $10M completion on Jan 6), with $50M in deferred payments over coming years. Total debt fell from $84M to $31M, debt-to-equity improved from 35% to 13%. The company is now a pure-play Zambian copper producer with financial capacity to execute growth strategy without dilution.
[E2486] Latin America facing 'trifecta of change': policy shifts, geopolitics, and peak interest rates driving new investment cycle. Latam capital markets projected to grow from $2.5T to $6T by 2035. MS recommends underweight consumer, overweight financials/utilities/energy/industrials. Brazil at 10x PE, Mexico at 14x PE.
[E2582] Court approval for dividend and buyback capability expected around July-August 2026. Given the cash position post-disposal, Archer believes a modest buyback program would make enormous sense at current valuations. Buying back £10M worth of shares at 4p could 'absolutely start the re-rate.' This signals management thinking about capital returns.
[E2316] Emerging Markets identified as new secular bull joining international stocks in year two. Strong commodity prices powering AI buildout lead to stronger EM FX, lower EM bond yields, and EM stocks entering new relative bull (Chart 10). China is Hartnett's favorite long on end of deflation, with consumption set to rebalance higher from low 40% of GDP. China's 3% weighting in MSCI ACWI considered too low vs US 64%.
[E2392] UBS recommends long agriculture via second-generation index targeting +10% gain with -5% stop loss. Strategy underpinned by expected peak grain inventory-to-use ratios, unpriced geopolitical and weather risks, and low speculator net-short positions that could trigger rapid short covering. Agricultural exposure offers diversification benefits.
[E2416] UBS recommends long sugar via second-generation index targeting USD 0.17/lb with stop loss at USD 0.14/lb from current USD 0.149/lb. India's biofuel policies expected to decrease exports; higher crude oil prices to raise Brazilian ethanol margins, diverting more cane from sugar to ethanol. Sugar surplus expected to peak over Q1.
[E2379] UBS projects platinum at USD 2,500/oz (raised by USD 650/oz) and palladium at USD 1,800/oz (raised by USD 300/oz) driven by solid investment demand. The European Commission's plan to ease the 2035 ban on combustion engines contributed to platinum exuberance. China's new physically backed platinum and palladium futures contracts on Guangzhou Futures Exchange provided support.
[E2572] Jubilee Metals, a Zambian copper producer at 4p/share, represents a compelling value opportunity per Archer. The company is targeting 20,000 tonnes annual copper production by Christmas 2026, which at $10,000/tonne copper would generate $200M revenue and $60-70M EBITDA. Market is currently valuing at ~1x forward revenue and ~3x forward EBITDA, versus comparable copper producers at 3-5x revenue and 8-12x EBITDA. Author remains bullish and views it as cheap.
[E2585] The Galileo partnership structure is favorable to Jubilee: Galileo earns up to 23.75% of Molefe holding company by funding $700,000 exploration program, but only participates in revenue from mined/upgraded copper in solution — not refining profits. Jubilee retains 71.25% plus preferential earnings right to recover existing capital investment before any profit distribution. Early drilling indicates copper sulphide beneath existing oxide, suggesting longer mine life.
[E2305] Evidence of China's anti-involution policy is appearing: manufacturing fixed asset investment growth slowed to 0.6% YoY in 2025 (vs 9.2% in 2024), implying a 7.3% YoY decline in Q4. Construction and real estate sectors' share of nominal GDP fell to 12.1% in Q4, the lowest since Q1 2009. Net exports contributed 32.7% of 2025 real GDP growth.
[E9565] Foreign markets often remain less efficient than US markets, dominated by short-term trends and overreactions with fewer analysts conducting thorough analysis. Russo's Weetabix investment exemplifies this: bought at 7x P/E with 14% free cash flow yield, 10% cash position, and strong UK brand dominance, ultimately returning 10x over approximately 20 years (investment through 2003 sale).
[E8215] US industrial reshoring beneficiaries identified as core holding despite policy inconsistencies. Potential YCC-financed industrial policy would benefit US industrial and infrastructure stocks. TSMC mentioned as key entity in supply chain dynamics. Analysis suggests industrial stocks benefit structurally from reshoring imperative regardless of trade war outcome specifics.
[E5976] Emerging markets are identified as beneficiaries of forced Fed deficit monetization and USD weakness. A potential Bernie Sanders victory is flagged as a political catalyst that could accelerate USD weakness against major currency pairs, further benefiting EM positioning.
[E6114] John Deere (DE) flagged as vulnerable due to US farm crisis: China's complete halt of soybean and corn purchases ($12B to zero), $550B agricultural debt stress at 1980s-crisis levels, rising input costs, falling commodity prices, and tightening bank credit create equipment manufacturer weakness risk.
[E6366] The US extended a $20B aid package to Argentina as part of its industrial policy pivot toward acquiring strategic commodity and resource positions globally. Pakistan was also mentioned as a country involved in the shifting geopolitical and resource landscape. These moves reflect the US competing with China for commodity-rich allied nations.
[E6721] Japan exhibits emerging market crisis dynamics with falling yen and rising JGB yields simultaneously, despite promising $550B in US investment. Gromen notes countries in currency crises typically cannot write large checks for foreign investments, threatening key US reshoring plans. Rising JGB yields forcing Japan into impossible currency/bond market choice.
[E7174] FFTT favors commodity-related emerging markets including Russia and Brazil as of January 2022, expecting these to outperform once the Fed reverses course. The thesis rests on these markets benefiting from both commodity price strength and eventual dollar weakness when the Fed is forced to capitulate on tightening due to unsustainable fiscal constraints.
[E7202] China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative creates genuine connectivity and economic opportunities in developing nations across Latin America, Africa, and Asia while building Chinese trade dominance. Countries like Ecuador and Panama are cited as examples of nations where US and Chinese EHM strategies compete for influence through infrastructure investment and trade partnerships.
[E7586] FFTT highlights the US industrial renaissance thesis: reshoring combined with skilled labor shortages and defense spending creates sustained pricing power for US industrials. Companies face non-linear cost pressures from labor bottlenecks but can pass costs through, making industrial equities a structural beneficiary of deglobalization and fiscal dominance.
[E8317] German industrial sector facing collapse as BASF highlighted amid energy crisis, with German bond auctions failing due to energy crisis funding needs. European industrial crisis could spread contagion if energy shortages worsen, representing both risk and potential positioning opportunity around European energy dependence.
[E8749] Global data across 36 countries shows very large stock price movements are 'commonplace by world standards,' many much larger than those experienced in the United States. The Philippines gained 683.4% in a single year, Taiwan declined 74.9% in one year. 80% of countries with the largest declines subsequently rose, supporting opportunistic entry into deeply distressed regional markets.
[E7840] Iceland's extreme case — debt-to-GDP peaking at 1,173% and foreign currency debt at 691% of GDP — alongside GDP declines ranging 3%-30% across 15 EM crises, illustrates the wide dispersion of outcomes in emerging and frontier markets. Dalio emphasizes that policy flexibility and experimentation (ending unsuccessful policies within months) are hallmarks of successful crisis resolution.
[E4833] Small-cap consensus EPS growth forecast near 60% as market exits 3-year Russell 2000 bear market. Combined with PMI upside and rate-cut tailwinds, small caps positioned for substantial outperformance in 2026 as Mag 7 leadership rotates to broad-based growth.
[E4907] Brazil and Chile positioned for major outperformance due to copper, lithium, rare earth minerals, and commodity upside. EWZ correlation with LME metals historically bullish breakpoint. Dollar weakness amplifies EM currency strength. Regional plays (Brazil 34% YTD, Chile/Mexico 34-44%) outpacing US equities significantly.
[E5198] EM countries (Argentina, El Salvador, Nigeria) leading crypto adoption as escape from currency collapse. New Argentine president Milei pursuing dollarization via Bitcoin; 19% population owns crypto; currency depreciation accelerating adoption.
[E4818] Small-cap consensus EPS growth near 60% as Russell 2000 exits 3-year bear market. Combined with PMI upside and rate-cut tailwinds, small caps positioned for substantial outperformance in 2026. Broadest market rotation away from Mag 7 to small-cap growth underway.
[E4806] Brazil (EWZ) emerging as rare earth & commodity leverage to US-China AI competition. Rare earth crisis: China >90% processing control. Brazil reserves massive; currency and equities benefiting from resource nationalism pivot.
[E4789] Brazil (EWZ) emerging as AI mineral & commodity beneficiary. Rare earth deposits in Greenland, Brazil provide leverage to US-China tensions. Real currency likely to strengthen on commodity demand and AI capex repatriation flows.
[E4867] China stimulus driving Hang Seng largest week since 1998 (Brazil era). M2 growth in China (2x US size) has global liquidity implications. Emerging markets allocation at multidecade lows—short interest in FXI at record. Copper as proxy for China+energy transition positioned for breakout.
[E4979] China reopened with massive rally then consolidation. Government trying to support without creating parabolic moves. Hidden debt mitigation mentioned as next fiscal focus. Tech sector (CHINEX) resilient despite broad equity pullback. Hong Kong real estate plays potential if government support continues.
[E5360] Hang Seng largest weekly move since 1998 (Brazil crisis era). Emerging markets positioning at multidecade lows. Short interest in FXI at highest levels ever. Pattern shift in Chinese equities: previous pattern had yearly lows early, highs late; 2024 reversed (lows early, now making highs late). Signals structural turning point.
[E5114] Housing affordability worst in 40 years but mortgage debt service lowest since 1991. Homeowners have massive equity, no debt burden despite affordability crisis for new buyers.