2026 01 30T12 29 45 896Z Reverse Perestroika

Author: Michael Every (Rabobank RaboResearch) Date: 2026-01-30 Type: r2 Evidence: 29 Themes: 18

copper-specialty-commodities-bottleneck

🟢 [E2674] US neomercantilism specifically requires 'coercing others into supplying it with key goods even while it decouples from them, such as with rare earths recently' — combining threats to non-aligned economies with forced supply relationships. The US has already taken stakes in rare earths producers and nuclear power as part of strategic industrial policy.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2673] Every describes US strategy to 'establish control over global choke points and critical supply chains' with raw materials flowing to the US cheaply, priced in dollars (the 'Pax Silica' framework). The US has already taken stakes in rare earths producers and the Pentagon Office of Strategic Capital is set to pump $200bn into defence innovation. A JPMorgan-financed US smelter joint-venture for Latin American metals will see the Department of War hold a 40% stake.
supporting · 2026-01-30

us-hegemony-geopolitical-regime-shift

🟢 [E2662] The NSS demands a 'Warsaw Pact'-style restructuring of US alliances into ideologically-aligned, economically-integrated blocs. Europe is accused of 'civilisational erasure' and the US backs 'cultivating resistance to Europe's current trajectory within European nations.' Threats over Greenland demonstrate quasi-Soviet levels of intervention into allied sovereignty under national security umbrellas.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2661] Every argues the US is undergoing a revolutionary restructuring from the post-Cold War/globalisation model toward 'Capitalism with a national-security face.' The National Security Strategy explicitly states 'economic security is national security,' demanding burden-sharing from allies (5% NATO defence spending by 2035), controlling critical supply chains, and establishing a US-led trading bloc. The liberal world order is already crumbling as Trump's second term pursues radical changes.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2686] The post-Cold War US model is described as having failed in key areas: only 20% of bank loans for commercial/industrial purposes (financialisation over production), wages lagging productivity and asset prices, large fiscal/current account deficits, high rising debt, and military-industrial decline. The system 'has not been performing as well as in the past in many key areas.' This explains the revolutionary impetus for reverse perestroika.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2678] Every describes a 'Reverse Marshall Plan' where $7.7trn in pledged sovereign FDI from trade partners represents past trade surpluses being ploughed back into US productive economy as the price for security umbrella access. This is potentially transformative — the US will direct this capital to specific productive areas markets have overlooked. Countries face a binary choice: American-led bloc of sovereign countries and free economies, or a 'parallel one influenced by countries on the other side of the world.'
supporting · 2026-01-30

us-dollar-fx-structural-bear

🟡 [E2683] The reverse perestroika framework is contested on dollar direction. On one hand, the Triffin Dilemma must be escaped (suggesting dollar weakening as fiscal deficits are funded differently). On the other hand, stablecoins would 'prop up the dollar under any financial repression' and allow lower dollar rates onshore than offshore, 'maintaining the attractiveness of the stablecoin.' The outcome depends on whether the radical reforms succeed.
contested · 2026-01-30

defense-drones-modern-warfare

🟢 [E2671] Every identifies military-industrial capacity as central to reverse perestroika, noting the current US system has 'decline in US military-industrial strength so it can no longer fight two major wars at once, and not even one for long.' Trump is proposing a $500bn Pentagon budget increase for 2027, plus the $175bn Golden Dome missile defence system. The NSS demands 'reviving the defence industrial base' as a core objective.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2672] The Department of War will hold a 40% stake in a JPMorgan-financed US smelter joint-venture for processing Latin American metals — exemplifying the new state role in critical defence supply chains. Trump capped defence firms' buybacks, dividends, and executive pay 'until they produce more' — direct intervention to prioritise production over financialisation.
supporting · 2026-01-30

treasury-bond-crisis-rates

🟢 [E2669] Every identifies the structural bid for US assets (Treasuries) from the global financial architecture as a feature that reverse perestroika must reform. The US will need Fed help on rates for government while simultaneously restructuring the architecture that provides that structural bid. Dollar stablecoins are positioned as a tool to circumvent the Triffin Dilemma and maintain fiscal space during the transition.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2670] Success of reverse perestroika requires gaining 'de facto control of the Fed' for allocating capital at low rates in the national interest, potentially including 'bricks-and-mortar QE' and Yield Curve Control if markets react badly. The Fed must be ideologically aligned behind the NSS even if acting 'independently' — extending beyond rates to QE, YCC, capital controls, and swaplines.
supporting · 2026-01-30

regional-opportunistic-trades

🟢 [E2677] Every outlines US strategy offering a development model to aligned economies: 'for our partner nations to build up their domestic economies' while 'an economically stronger and more sophisticated Western Hemisphere becomes an increasingly attractive market for American commerce and investment.' This includes increased US FDI via export-credit financing resembling a US rival to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
supporting · 2026-01-30

inflationary-bust-commodity-barbell

🟢 [E2664] Every explicitly states the US shift from consumption to production will be 'initially inflationary' — analogous to Gorbachev's price liberalisation meeting weak local supply with pent-up demand. The 'reverse perestroika' framework acknowledges significant pain is unavoidable when overturning the global system, requiring price controls, state intervention, and strategic stockpiling rather than traditional interest rate policy to manage inflation.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2684] The reverse perestroika framework requires inflation management through 'guidance on correct profit levels,' state subsidies, strategic stockpiling, and tactical imports — not traditional interest rates. Pentagon price floors for rare earths are already being set to encourage supply. Once capital stock is built, automation and AI 'help obviate much of the inflationary impulse,' but the transition period requires direct state intervention in pricing.
supporting · 2026-01-30

equity-market-correction-positioning

🟡 [E2687] Every warns that all reverse perestroika reforms must be done 'simultaneously, as Gorbachev found out the hard way' — this may explain the confusing flood of headlines across many fronts. Market volatility is structural to this transformation. Escalation from rivals or even allies could 'deliberately destabilise matters' or paradoxically accelerate current US policy direction.
contested · 2026-01-30

energy-sector-structural-positioning

🟢 [E2675] Energy dominance is explicitly identified as a core NSS objective — 'in oil, gas, coal, and nuclear.' The Trump administration has threatened to take stakes in oil companies (presumably to drive Venezuela investment), and the broader strategy requires cheap energy flowing to the US while maintaining the ability to deny those flows to rivals. AI and automation 'require cheap energy' and must flow into productive rather than trivial sectors.
supporting · 2026-01-30

iran-hormuz-cascading-supply-shock

💬 [E2679] Iran is explicitly mentioned as a target of early 2026 US actions alongside Venezuela, Greenland, and Gaza. The geopolitical escalation is framed as part of the revolutionary restructuring, with 'escalation from existing geopolitical rivals' identified as a risk that could 'deliberately destabilise matters... or perhaps accelerate the current US policy direction.'
commentary · 2026-01-30

ai-disruption-knowledge-economy

🟢 [E2685] Every notes that AI and automation, which require cheap energy, must flow into 'productive sectors like manufacturing rather than more trivial areas' under reverse perestroika. The Genesis Mission is positioned as a national effort for 'AI-accelerated innovation' to solve the century's most challenging problems — explicitly directing AI away from pure productivity/disruption toward national strategic ends.
supporting · 2026-01-30

global-liquidity-cycle-macro-regime

🟢 [E2665] Every argues reverse perestroika requires Treasury control of the Fed (or ideological alignment behind NSS), with all monetary tools — interest rates, QE, Yield Curve Control, capital controls, swaplines, stablecoins — available for national strategy. The Triffin Dilemma (foreign demand for dollars equals US trade/fiscal deficits) is what reverse perestroika must change, though massive new fiscal expenditure is still needed for military ($500bn Pentagon budget increase for 2027, $175bn Golden Dome system).
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2710] Every identifies Yield Curve Control as a logical tool if markets react badly to fiscal expansion: 'It also allows soft budget constraints even if markets react badly via Yield Curve Control.' The Fed must be brought under Treasury control or ideological alignment, with all monetary tools available including QE, capital controls, and swaplines as instruments of national strategy rather than independent monetary policy.
supporting · 2026-01-30

crypto-regulatory-stablecoin-catalyst

🟢 [E2666] Every argues dollar stablecoins are a US geopolitical weapon that can circumvent the Triffin Dilemma. When foreign firms hold stablecoins, dollars flow to the US via T-Bill purchases while exports receive tokens rather than dollars — no dollars leave the US and external US debt holdings don't increase. This echoes the fragmented Soviet trade Ruble system and allows the US to expand its hegemonic FX position globally while reindustrialising.
supporting · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2667] Using stablecoins, the US can theoretically see lower interest rates while others' rise (as capital flows out of non-aligned economies), maintain fiscal space, recycle credit for productive investment, and prop up the dollar under financial repression. Stablecoins would play 'a crucial role' under any financial repression scenario, alongside a 'Warsaw Pact' that accepts and recycles them via a Reverse Marshall Plan.
supporting · 2026-01-30

financials-banks-deregulation

🟢 [E2680] Every describes a pattern of aggressive state intervention into financial sector operations including banning Wall Street from buying single family homes, forcing credit card companies to cap interest at 10%, capping defence firm buybacks/dividends/executive pay, and FTC blocking M&A deals that raise consumer costs. This is characterised by the Financial Times as 'MAGA has gone Maoist' — corporate America reels as Trump turns interventionist.
supporting · 2026-01-30

bitcoin-cycle-bear-phase

💬 [E2668] Every positions Bitcoin as a potential neutral reserve asset for non-allies that the US aims to decouple from, noting the US aims to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve and has 'already seized from others around the world in policing actions.' This would fragment the global trading system into different systems for different ideological blocs — stablecoins for the US-led bloc, Bitcoin for others.
commentary · 2026-01-30

macro-cycle-frameworks

🟡 [E2682] Every explicitly acknowledges the risk of failure: markets may see 'short-term relief' but as Russia found, 'there isn't any easy way to sustainably return to the status quo ante once a critical threshold has been passed.' Failure could end 'with a bang' in terms of inflation and damage to institutional integrity — 'trust, once gone, takes a long time to rebuild.' Trump also faces 2026 midterm and 2028 election risks, court challenges, and potential for allies to walk away.
contested · 2026-01-30
🟢 [E2681] Every argues success requires all reforms to be done simultaneously — monetary (Fed control), fiscal (soft budget constraints for favoured sectors, austerity elsewhere), trade (Warsaw Pact integration), industrial (state stakes in key sectors), and capital (stablecoins, controls). Gorbachev failed because reforms were 'too timid' and flip-flopped when vested interests were threatened. The risk of failure is evident, but radical reforms could 'succeed relatively painlessly' if synchronised.
supporting · 2026-01-30
💬 [E2663] Every frames the current US transformation through the lens of Soviet perestroika, arguing Trump is executing an 'inverse Gorbachev' — shifting from consumption/financialisation back to capital investment and military production. The analogy suggests both high failure risk (as with Gorbachev/Yeltsin) and potential for success if radical reforms are implemented simultaneously across monetary, fiscal, trade, and industrial policy.
commentary · 2026-01-30

china-equity-opportunity

💬 [E2707] China is positioned as the primary rival in the reverse perestroika framework. The NSS explicitly frames the choice as American-led vs China/BRICS-influenced blocs. If reverse perestroika fails, 'the evident conflating issues with, and emerging threats to, the US political-economic model are obvious' — including the question of 'how to deal with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea' and avoiding 'stagnation or eclipse, then decline.'
commentary · 2026-01-30

ai-capex-infrastructure-bottleneck

🟢 [E2676] Every notes the Genesis Mission aims to 'unleash a new age of AI-accelerated innovation' but AI firms have been told they 'are not allowed to pass on their soaring electricity demand to consumers via utility bills, and must pay their own way.' This positions AI capex as subject to state direction under the national security umbrella, with energy constraints being managed through policy intervention rather than market mechanisms.
supporting · 2026-01-30