🟢 [E7460] Gromen notes 'the biggest byproduct of zinc smelting is silver,' highlighting how European energy crisis shutting zinc smelters creates cascading supply deficits across multiple metals. This demonstrates how energy constraints create structural bottlenecks in specialty commodity supply chains beyond the primary commodity affected.

🟢 [E7457] The analysis highlights China-Russia trade as a primary entity alongside the energy crisis, and identifies the key resolution mechanism as EU/UK/Japan agreeing to purchase energy in their own currencies rather than USD. This framing implies the crisis could accelerate de-dollarization and erosion of USD hegemony as countries seek to avoid the doom loop of USD-denominated energy purchases.

🔴 [E7452] Gromen describes a USD super-spike scenario driven by EU/UK/Japan forced selling of USD assets to finance energy imports denominated in dollars. EUR, JPY, and GBP weakness vs USD accelerates foreign capital repatriation from US markets in a 1997 Asia-style currency crisis dynamic, creating a doom loop that only ends with system collapse or Fed pivot.

🟢 [E7453] USTs on a weekly basis have lost money 69% of the time in 2022, described as unprecedented since 1961 and worse than anything in the 1970s. Foreign holders (EU/UK/Japan) forced to sell USTs to fund energy import deficits would accelerate Treasury market dysfunction, with the doom loop only resolved by Fed intervention or system collapse.

💬 [E7461] Belgian PM warned that without energy market intervention, Europe faces de-industrialization and severe social unrest. The analysis positions EU/UK/Japan as vulnerable to 1997 Asia-style currency crises, with the key variable being whether these regions can negotiate energy purchases in local currencies rather than USD to break the doom loop.

🟢 [E7459] The analysis describes a scenario where Fed is forced into renewed QE amid persistent inflation to prevent system collapse from the energy-driven doom loop. This implies stagflationary outcomes where monetary easing coexists with structural commodity-driven inflation, supporting the physical vs digital economy divergence thesis with energy prices as the transmission mechanism.

🟢 [E7456] FFTT recommends holding puts on global equity indices and raising cash, describing Q4 2022 as the scariest macro environment in a 27-year career. The doom loop of forced USD asset sales by EU/UK/Japan to finance energy imports could break global equity markets. Advises avoiding duration risk while maintaining core positions in gold, energy, and industrial equities.

🟢 [E7454] Energy prices needed to balance supply/demand are pushing EU/UK/Japan into current account deficits with systemic implications. Belgian PM warned a few weeks of crisis conditions would cause European economy 'full stop,' de-industrialization, and severe social unrest. Recommended positioning includes maintaining core energy and industrial equity positions. Estimated $1.5T in energy margin calls cited as direct loss figure.

🟢 [E7455] Gromen recommends maintaining core gold and gold mining positions as part of crisis positioning amid the scariest macro environment of his 27-year career. Notes that the biggest byproduct of zinc smelting is silver, implying European zinc smelter shutdowns due to energy costs could create silver supply disruption as a secondary effect of the energy crisis.

🟢 [E7451] FFTT warns of highest global risk asset collapse risk since Lehman bankruptcy as of September 2022. Energy-driven current account deficits in EU/UK/Japan will force aggressive USD asset sales, triggering a doom loop of USD strength breaking global bond and equity markets until Fed is forced to pause QT and resume QE, potentially before year-end 2022.

🟢 [E7458] Gromen draws explicit structural parallel between 2022 European energy crisis and 2007 subprime: analysts calculating direct losses ($60-80B subprime then, $1.5T energy margins now) while missing systemic transmission mechanisms. The 1997 Asia crisis template applies to EU/UK/Japan forced asset sales, suggesting regime-change-level structural risks rather than a contained sectoral event.