🟢 [E3852] The dollar weakened against all major currencies last week, boosting global liquidity levels. Key crosses: USD/GBP at $1.37 (near 2025 low), USD/EUR at $1.19 (at 2025 low), USD/JPY at ¥153 (down from ¥157), and USD/RMB at 6.90 (down from 6.94). Howell explicitly states 'a weak US dollar is positive for global liquidity conditions.'

🟢 [E3863] Investor positioning shows strong regional divergence: Emerging Markets at +61 with particular strength in Korea (+71) and China (+47). Japan at +69 supports DM (+14). US positions are slipping towards risk-off (-7). Within Eurozone: France deeply risk-off at -25, while Germany (+18) and Italy (+11) remain risk-on.

🟢 [E3861] Risk asset performance in 2025 followed Howell's liquidity script: weak Q1 following Q4 2024 liquidity dip, strong Q2-Q3 following 1H liquidity expansion, modest Q4 gains following Q3 slowdown. This validates the ~3-month lag relationship between liquidity changes and risk asset performance.

🟢 [E3855] The Q4 2025 loss of momentum in global liquidity growth has made the investing environment 'more challenging,' manifesting in flat-lining global aggregates (MSCI World Index) and volatile US risk asset markets. Howell's framework suggests the 3-month lag from Q4 liquidity weakness is currently impacting Q1 2026 risk assets.

🟢 [E3857] Strong PBoC liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year were a key driver of the global liquidity pickup, with China's central bank providing the largest positive impulse to the 3-month acceleration in liquidity growth rates.

🟢 [E3856] Gold showed unusual resilience in Q1 2025, advancing despite Q4 2024 liquidity slowdown. While risk assets lost momentum in Q4 2025, gold continued hitting new highs. Gold started 2026 well, driven by PBoC liquidity, though it has 'faltered of late in a widespread market rout.'

🟢 [E3873] Gold's early 2026 strength was 'driven by PBoC liquidity' according to Howell, supporting the thesis that Chinese liquidity injections flow preferentially toward gold. This occurred even as Bitcoin and broader risk assets experienced weakness.

🟢 [E3862] Howell's framework demonstrates strong correlation between Global Liquidity and MSCI World Index with a roughly 3-month lag. The 2025 script validated this: weak Q1 following Q4 2024 liquidity dip, strong Q2-Q3 following H1 expansion, modest Q4 gains following slower Q3 expansion. This establishes liquidity as the primary macro driver.

🟢 [E3851] The collateral multiplier is being boosted by falling bond volatility — MOVE index has trended lower since April 2025 peak of 137.3 and remains close to 4-year lows at 68, despite a slight uptick last week. Lower volatility reduces haircuts on collateral, thereby expanding the liquidity multiplier mechanism.

🟢 [E3850] The Shadow Monetary Base (SMB), comprising Central Bank liquidity and collateral, rose to US$112.1tr with 3-month annualized growth jumping to 9.1%. Howell identifies SMB as the 'bedrock of liquidity growth' with main drivers being PBoC, firmer collateral values, and US dollar weakness.

🟢 [E3849] Global Liquidity reached a new all-time high of US$188.8tr last week, with 3-month annualized growth rate picking up noticeably to 3.6% (from prior weeks' sluggishness) and annual growth at 8.7%. The strong annual rate partly reflects weak liquidity base from this time last year. Key drivers were PBoC injections (pre-Lunar New Year), improved collateral values, and broad USD weakness.

🟡 [E3854] Despite record Global Liquidity levels, cross-currents remain. Bank of Japan QT and sluggish ECB/BoE liquidity growth are holding gains in check, creating an uneven global liquidity picture where PBoC and dollar weakness are doing the heavy lifting while developed market central banks (ex-Fed) remain drags.

💬 [E3859] Howell's methodology tracks both 'full' monthly data (90 countries, Central Bank + private sector liquidity) and 'flash' weekly estimates (major 5 CBs: Fed, PBoC, ECB, BoJ, BoE plus G7+China collateral values and volatility multiplier). Flash estimates provide intra-month reads that can be restated upon full data release.

🟢 [E3858] Howell introduces a crypto basket (BES$: 60% BTC, 40% ETH, 10% Solana) chart showing tight correlation with Global Liquidity advanced 3 months. This validates the liquidity-to-crypto transmission mechanism across major cryptocurrencies including Solana.

🟢 [E3853] Bitcoin prices have experienced a 'rout' in Q1 2026 following loss of momentum in global (specifically US) liquidity growth through Q4 2025. Howell explicitly links the Q4 2025 liquidity slowdown to Bitcoin's current weakness, consistent with his ~3-month lag framework between liquidity and crypto prices.

🟢 [E3871] Bitcoin largely mirrored broader risk assets in 2025 — weak Q1, recovery in Q2, new record highs in Q3, then faltering in Q4 reflecting slower liquidity expansion in Q3. The liquidity-to-Bitcoin correlation operates with approximately a 3-month lag.

🟢 [E3860] Investor positioning data shows China at +47 risk-on reading within the broader EM allocation (+61), with Korea even stronger at +71. This suggests continued institutional rotation toward Asian emerging markets despite broader risk-off trends in developed markets.