🟢 [E4451] Palantir (Technical Score = 2) fell 37% from Dec 22 2025 to Feb 13 2026, rallied nearly 30% into cresting 40-Week MA. Expected to roll from here with risk to 100. Relative vs S&P also toppy. ARKK shows Head & Shoulders Top pattern with risk to 50.

🟢 [E4450] Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is the next 'Gradually, then suddenly' candidate with negative momentum divergence since Feb 2026. Risk to 7000 (350 for SMH), then 6200 (320 for SMH). Micron was +160% above 200-Day MA on Jan 30, now only +54% above. MU has 450 resistance, 350 first support, 250 second support.

🟢 [E4428] Roque targets the 2-Year Treasury Yield at 5%, corresponding with the top of its range going back to 2006. The yield shows a fugazi breakdown in early March followed by sharp reversal, with High Pole & High Flag patterns implying higher levels. Weekly MACD is close to positive territory, and the yield has broken above a 40+-year downward-sloping trendline. Roque argues nobody has a breakout of the potential 20-Year Brobdingnagian BASE (500bp range) priced into any forecast.

🟢 [E4429] The 2-Year Treasury Yield is underpriced relative to oil, and Roque expects it to ultimately become 'public enemy #1' replacing oil. Only the 3-Month and 6-Month yields remain below Fed Funds, meaning rate cuts are effectively off the table. The move from COVID lows into the 2024 high broke the multi-decade downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, establishing a new rate regime since spring 2022.

🟢 [E4430] The 10-Year Treasury Yield is breaking out of a flat-bottomed triangle pattern. Robert Soros told Roque in 2012 that 'the bond market never lies' — something always breaks when the 10-Year yield rises. This indicator is described as 'the Rocky Marciano of indicators' — undefeated, like the only heavyweight champion to retire undefeated.

🟢 [E4431] Rate cuts are now impossible based on yield curve positioning. Only the 3-Month and 6-Month yields remain below Fed Funds — all other tenors (2s, 3s and beyond) have moved above. Roque states: 'You can kiss rate cuts goodbye.' This represents a significant shift from the prior expectation that Fed would cut.

🟢 [E4452] Germany's DAX is the next 'Gradually, then suddenly' candidate. Early January breakout was compromised by two consecutive downside gaps on Mar 2 (-2.6%) and Mar 3 (-3.4%), creating a Fugazi Breakout that usually means sharp moves in the opposite direction. Despite being down 13% this month, more downside ahead with target of 20000. DAX below 150-Day MA with negative ROC indicator.

🟢 [E4448] Import price trends ex-tariff may be turning higher. Inflation has been accelerating with January actuals, February informed consensus inferences, and March simulations assuming 35bp increases. This suggests underlying inflation pressure beyond tariff noise.

🟢 [E4477] Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is the next 'Gradually, then suddenly' candidate with negative momentum divergence since February 2026. Better seller here with risk to 7000 (350 for SMH) and then 6200 (320 for SMH). Micron was +160% above 200-Day MA on Jan 30, now only +54% above — 450 resistance with 350 first support and 250 second support.

🟢 [E4432] S&P 500 support at 6550–6500 won't hold, with downside target at 6100. Since 2017, the S&P has fallen -20%, -35%, -28%, -11%, and -21% when the weekly MACD has looked this weak. Current decline is only -7.5% from peak. The 200-day moving average now appears to be resistance, and weekly MACD/RSI are not yet oversold, suggesting more downside ahead.

🟢 [E4482] Credit spread contraction implies NTM PE compression of only -0.4 to -1.2 using CDX spreads, but actual NTM PE contraction is -1.8. This suggests equities are pricing in more stress than credit markets, or credit is lagging the equity signal.

🟢 [E4481] VIX April futures continue to make new highs as volatility picks up additional steam, back to highs from last Friday. Large open interest from JPM collar trade (JHEQX) on 3/31 6475 puts could add to downside volatility between now and Tuesday.

🟢 [E4480] SPY has a poor technical picture with 200-day moving average now appearing as resistance. 1-month implied vol at 6-month highs and trading at large premium to 30-day realized vol. Next support level is 610. Recommended hedge trade is April SPY 640/610/580 put butterfly with upside call sale.

🟢 [E4479] Germany DAX breakout in early January compromised by two consecutive downside gaps on Mar 2 (-2.6%) and Mar 3 (-3.4%), changing it to a Fugazi Breakout. DAX down 13% in March but more downside expected with target at 20000. Below 150-Day MA with negative ROC indicator — a combination historically bad for DAX.

🟢 [E4478] ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) shows Head & Shoulders Top pattern with risk to 50. Palantir fell 37% from Dec 22, 2025 to Feb 13, 2026, then rallied nearly 30% into cresting 40-Week MA. Expected to roll here with risk to 100. Relative vs. S&P also toppy.

🟢 [E4433] NASDAQ 22000 support won't hold with target at 20000. Since 2018, NASDAQ has corrected -24%, -33%, -38%, -13%, -16%, and -27%. Currently down only -11% from peak, Roque expects -16.5% total decline. Daily momentum peaked in May 2025 yet NASDAQ rose another 5000 points (26%) to October 2025 peak — demonstrating why daily negative divergences are hard to trade profitably.

🟢 [E4434] The market feels terrible but is nowhere close to oversold. Only 36% of NASDAQ stocks and 49% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. NYSE Cumulative Net New Highs and Cumulative Breadth/Volume indicators are in obvious trouble. Defense should be maintained until these indicators get back above their 21-day moving averages with upward inflection.

🟢 [E4435] AAII Bears at 50% but last two big declines saw Bears rise to 60% before bottoming. Expecting a ceasefire and follow-on rally is consensus, with complacency described as 'thicker than a Katz's pastrami sandwich.' This suggests sentiment has not yet reached the capitulation levels that typically mark major bottoms.

🟢 [E4449] Oil's extraordinary move has an identifiable cause, but as the US 2-Year Treasury Yield turns in earnest there will be bigger problems ahead. The US 2-Year Yield is underpriced relative to oil. This cross-asset dynamic suggests rate stress may compound energy market stress.

🟢 [E4454] Credit spreads are signaling equity multiple contraction. The contraction in NTM PE implied by CDX spread moves is -0.4 to -1.2, but actual NTM PE contraction has been -1.8, suggesting equities have already moved more than credit implied. This divergence warrants attention for potential credit stress spillover.

🔴 [E4440] Roque admits being wrong on Tesla — thought it would break out in fall 2025 but instead it's now going to break support at the 200-Day MA. Technical Score = 0 with weak MACD. The late 2025 breakout was also a fugazi breakout. Risk to 300.

🟢 [E4458] With only 3-Month and 6-Month yields below Fed Funds, rate cuts are effectively priced out. The yield curve structure indicates monetary policy accommodation is off the table as front-end rates have moved above the policy rate. This represents a significant shift in liquidity expectations that contradicts the still-dovish consensus.

🟢 [E4437] NVIDIA showing third negative monthly divergence in 26 years, with MACD suggesting lower levels ahead. First target is 160. This is a high-conviction sell signal given the rarity of such divergence patterns in the stock's history.

🟢 [E4436] Big 7/Mag 7 index is broken both in absolute terms and relative performance. From Dec 17, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025 (75 days) it lost -29%. From Oct 29, 2025 to present (102 days) it's down -21%. Given high correlations (S&P to Big 7 = 89%; NASDAQ to Big 7 = 94%), Roque expects S&P to break support at 6500 working to 6100 and NASDAQ to break 22000 working to 20000.

🟢 [E4438] Meta is below cresting 40-Week MA with MACD in negative territory. First target is 500, second target is 425–440. The technical setup suggests further weakness ahead for the stock.

🟢 [E4439] Microsoft Technical Score = 0. A move to 350 (2025 low) would match its 2021–2022 decline. MSFT is down -34% since Aug '25/Oct '25 high to Mar 13, 2026. Relative Top vs. S&P 500 shows MSFT has been flat vs. S&P for over 6 years. MSFT and NASDAQ are 80% directionally correlated since late 2017, supporting broader NASDAQ weakness call.

🟢 [E4467] Apple Technical Score = 2 with breakouts in late 2025 and February 2026 morphing into fugazi breakouts. Support at 240 not likely to hold with risk to 220. MACD is deteriorating. Amazon Technical Score = 2 with break of 200 implying 160. Alphabet Technical Score = 2 with risk to 200 after a potential 32% decline matching the 2025 tariff imbroglio.

🔴 [E4444] Since 2018, it's always been right to be cautious when momentum for S&P and Financials weakens simultaneously. This is happening again now. XLF down 8 of last 10 days and 7 of 11 weeks in 2026. Negative momentum divergence now being resolved with 2025 low the next target. Relative performance vs. S&P at COVID lows.

🔴 [E4445] JPMorgan is the market's most important stock and Financials/Banks are the most important Sector/Group. JPM is toppy with MACD going away — this is especially concerning. When JPM gets below its 200-Day MA with the 200-Day MA cresting/rolling, JPM has suffered going back to the early days of the GFC, and so has the S&P.

🟢 [E4442] Bitcoin has had 5 prior BIG BEARS since 2011 averaging -80% downside, with smallest at -72%. Using -72% from March 2024 breakout above $60,000 implies potential downside to $35,280. Now below 12-Month MA with Monthly MACD crested and histogram in negative territory. Since 2011, Bitcoin has not bottomed until moving back above 12-Month MA with MACD turning.

🟢 [E4441] Bitcoin target is $40,000 with current pattern NOT a base. Below downward-sloping 89-Day MA which historically signals poor performance. Down -27% to -48% from Oct '25 peak with Feb 6 low hitting -52.5%. Prior bears since 2021 were -55%, -76%, -33%, and -32%. A break of $60,000 (hit Feb 6) implies $40,000.

🟢 [E4474] Big 7, IGV (software ETF), and Bitcoin are all correlated — 'It is all one trade.' The Forbes cover in January 2025 preceded a fugazi breakout with subsequent declines of -27%, -31%, -45%, and -48% from the October 2025 peak. This linkage suggests tech and crypto are moving together in a broader risk-off environment.

🟢 [E4443] Since 2017, Bitcoin has traded to levels beneath its 200-Day MA of -52% (2018), -44% (2020), and -55% (2022) before the last three BIG BEARS ended. Most recent low was only -39% on Feb 9 — not yet reaching typical capitulation levels. Bitcoin is most-asked question with most wanting to buy, but Roque is a seller.

💬 [E4453] Roque frames current market environment through Herb Stein's dictum ('If something cannot go on forever, it will stop') vs. Kenny Loggins uncertainty ('Does anything last forever…I don't know'). Market-wise, Herb Stein wins — trend changes in oil, sovereign yields, and Big 7/Mag 7 are the most consequential observations of recent months. Until these revert, remain cautious.

🟢 [E4446] MS On Site Power basket (MSXXONPW) is the biggest AI basket outperformer YTD at +38% despite suffering this week (-4.16%). Tremendous uptrend since summer 2025 breakout has resulted in overbought readings across the board. Pullback/retracement expected next. MS AI Power basket (MSXXAIPW) also down this week (-3.51%) but still +21% YTD with strong price action since summer 2025 breakout.

🟢 [E4447] 22V published report refreshing AI Goods (MS22AIG Index) and AI Services (MS22AIS Index) baskets with thesis that companies touching the physical world AND leveraging AI are in stronger position than pure service companies leveraging AI. This supports the view that physical infrastructure plays benefit more than pure software plays in the AI buildout.