[E4585] Amazon has Technical Score of 2 with support at 200. A break of 200 implies target of 160. MACD momentum weakening.
[E4584] Microsoft (MSFT) has Technical Score of 0 with target at 350 (2025 low). A move to 350 would match its 2021-2022 decline magnitude. Relative performance versus S&P 500 at same level as COVID lows in March 2020. Stock has been flat vs S&P for over 6 years.
[E4524] NVIDIA has produced a negative monthly divergence for only the third time in 26 years. The MACD suggests lower levels ahead with a first target of $160. This is a core technical signal indicating NVDA weakness.
[E4523] The Big 7/Mag 7 index is broken both on absolute price and relative performance. From Dec 17, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025, the Big 7 lost -29%. From Oct 29, 2025 to present (102 days), the Big 7 is down -21%. These trend breaks represent the most consequential market observation of recent months.
[E4617] Tesla has Technical Score of 0. Roque admits being wrong on his fall 2025 breakout call — now expects support break at the 200-Day MA with risk to $300. The prior breakout was also a fugazi breakout with weak MACD.
[E4527] Amazon has Technical Score of 2; a break of $200 support implies a target of $160. Apple has Technical Score of 2 with late 2025 and Feb 2026 breakouts morphing into fugazi breakouts — support at $240 unlikely to hold with risk to $220. Alphabet has Technical Score of 2 with a 32% decline (like the 2025 tariff imbroglio) targeting just under $240, with MACD deteriorating fast and risk to $200.
[E4526] Microsoft has Technical Score of 0 with MSFT relative performance vs. S&P 500 at COVID lows after a relative top. A move to $350 (2025 low) would match the 2021-2022 decline pattern. MSFT is flat vs. S&P for over 6 years and down -34% since Aug/Oct 2025 highs.
[E4525] Meta is below its cresting 40-Week MA with MACD in negative territory. Roque's first target is $500 with second target at $425-$440. The technical setup confirms the Mag 7 breakdown is broad-based.
[E4504] Amazon (Technical Score = 2): A break of 200 will imply 160. Alphabet (Technical Score = 2): A 32% decline like the 2025 tariff imbroglio would put GOOGL just under 240 — risk to 200. MACD 'going away fast' on both names.
[E4501] Apple (AAPL) Technical Score = 2. Late 2025 and Feb 2026 breakouts morphing into fugazi breakouts. Support at 240 unlikely to hold; risk to 220. MACD deteriorating. Amazon (AMZN) Technical Score = 2; a break of 200 implies 160. Alphabet (GOOGL) Technical Score = 2; a 32% decline like 2025 tariff imbroglio would take it to ~240, risk to 200.
[E4500] Microsoft (MSFT) Technical Score = 0. Down -34% since Aug/Oct 2025 high. A move to 350 (2025 low) would match its 2021-2022 decline pattern. Relative performance vs S&P at same level as March 2020 — flat vs S&P for >6 years. MSFT and NASDAQ 80% directionally correlated since late 2017, suggesting NASDAQ has more downside.
[E4499] NVIDIA showing negative monthly MACD divergence for only the third time in 26 years. Prior divergences signaled significant downside. First target is 160. Meta below cresting 40-Week MA with MACD in negative territory; risk to 500 (first target), then 425-440 (second target).
[E4498] Big 7/Mag 7 index is broken on both absolute and relative basis. From Dec 17, 2024 – Apr 8, 2025 (75 days) the index lost -29%. From Oct 29, 2025 to date (102 days) it is down -21%. S&P to Big 7 correlation 89%, NASDAQ to Big 7 94%, S&P to NASDAQ 98% — all highly correlated and all breaking down together.
[E4503] Apple's late 2025 and February 2026 breakouts are morphing into 'fugazi breakouts.' Support at 240 not likely to hold — risk to 220. MACD 'going away.' Technical Score = 2.
[E4502] Microsoft and NASDAQ are 80% directionally correlated since late 2017. 'Unless this (price) history is repealed, I still think it makes sense to look for NASDAQ to work lower.' MSFT weakness is a leading indicator for broader tech weakness.
[E4437] NVIDIA showing third negative monthly divergence in 26 years, with MACD suggesting lower levels ahead. First target is 160. This is a high-conviction sell signal given the rarity of such divergence patterns in the stock's history.
[E4436] Big 7/Mag 7 index is broken both in absolute terms and relative performance. From Dec 17, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025 (75 days) it lost -29%. From Oct 29, 2025 to present (102 days) it's down -21%. Given high correlations (S&P to Big 7 = 89%; NASDAQ to Big 7 = 94%), Roque expects S&P to break support at 6500 working to 6100 and NASDAQ to break 22000 working to 20000.
[E4438] Meta is below cresting 40-Week MA with MACD in negative territory. First target is 500, second target is 425–440. The technical setup suggests further weakness ahead for the stock.
[E4439] Microsoft Technical Score = 0. A move to 350 (2025 low) would match its 2021–2022 decline. MSFT is down -34% since Aug '25/Oct '25 high to Mar 13, 2026. Relative Top vs. S&P 500 shows MSFT has been flat vs. S&P for over 6 years. MSFT and NASDAQ are 80% directionally correlated since late 2017, supporting broader NASDAQ weakness call.
[E4467] Apple Technical Score = 2 with breakouts in late 2025 and February 2026 morphing into fugazi breakouts. Support at 240 not likely to hold with risk to 220. MACD is deteriorating. Amazon Technical Score = 2 with break of 200 implying 160. Alphabet Technical Score = 2 with risk to 200 after a potential 32% decline matching the 2025 tariff imbroglio.
[E4339] Adobe reported 10.9% YoY ARR growth with 10.2% ARR growth expected next year. Creative freemium users crossed 80 million MAUs (50% YoY increase). Firefly AI saw 45% QoQ increase in generative credits consumed. Trading at ~11x forward 2026 earnings with a 'fortress balance sheet,' Alden views it as undervalued despite CEO transition concerns.
[E4367] Alden is 'bullish fundamentally' on Adobe and views it 'as a stock to gradually add to' but is waiting for a 'technical bottom' before 'pounding the table.' Position sizing is emphasized given remaining uncertainty. Adobe's freemium-to-paid conversion strategy with AI add-ons represents successful AI integration.
[E4070] Microsoft is positioned as best in GS software coverage to benefit from compounding AI product cycles, beginning with AI compute leadership extending to Copilot and agent orchestration. Beneath Microsoft Copilot's surface is a highly nuanced graph showing how knowledge workers collaborate, built from years of observing enterprise workflows. Microsoft's vertical integration across platform, infrastructure, and application layers allows optimization of enterprise work.
[E3671] Semiconductor advanced packaging driving aftermarket materials demand. ASE Technology and Amkor benefiting from higher margins in advanced packaging, spending flowing upstream. Photomask blanks straddling upstream/midstream with Hoya (7741 JP) and AGC (5201 JP) as duopoly suppliers to mask shops. HDD glass substrates (also Hoya/AGC duopoly) seeing increased demand from AI world models, video models.
[E3460] Pal maintains long positions in NVDA ($118.4 entry, now +61.4%), AAPL ($176.96 entry, +46.6%), MSFT ($258.82 entry, +66.3%), GOOG ($105.80 entry, +219.5%), TSLA ($200.10 entry, +115.1%), and META ($189.9 entry, +277.3%). Core trade NDX ($12,655 entry, +101.9%). Tech outlook remains favorable per 6-month financial conditions lead.
[E3515] NVIDIA has traded sideways for 6 months despite dominance, as investors chase second/third-order winners in memory, optics, and packaging. Citrini argues the market has gotten so focused on supply chain plays that NVDA is now underappreciated. TPU threats exist but the pie is still growing. Trump's decision to allow NVIDIA chips to be sold into mainland China should drive upside surprise.
[E3516] Citrini positions for NVIDIA options contracts targeting guidance upside surprise. They note that any upside surprise would more likely result in sustained move as underweight investors add exposure, rather than a single-day pop. The 'Billions' analogy suggests sometimes the most obvious opportunities (like Apple in 2015, which has nearly 10x'd) are overlooked because investors think they're too basic.
[E3207] Sharp rotation within tech sector since Sept/Oct 2025 shows software (IGV -21%) dramatically underperforming semiconductors/hardware (SOXX +46%, hardware basket +29%). Consensus view is that AI value accrues to bottom layer of tech stack (processors, servers, storage, AI models) rather than SaaS/application software layers on top.
[E3112] NASDAQ represents the second megatrend alongside crypto, producing a perfect trend since 2008. Technology has delivered 17% annualised returns, outperforming Fed balance sheet and global liquidity plus inflation by 5% per year. NASDAQ is projected to reach 27,000-30,000 by mid-2025 based on the liquidity forecast model.
[E3142] Traditional valuation metrics like P/E ratios are obsolete in a currency debasement regime. Earnings are variable inputs growing with GDP, while equity prices are driven by debasement. Since debasement grows faster than GDP, equities appear optically expensive using old metrics, but this measure is useless when currency is being debased.
[E2899] UBS notes South Korea equities delivered 23.4% returns in past month with 28.5% over 3 months, driven substantially by EPS growth. Taiwan delivered 13.3% monthly and 12.6% quarterly returns. Both markets feature leaders in AI value-chain including chip and memory producers benefiting from ongoing AI adoption.
[E2496] NVIDIA rated Overweight with $4.6T market cap and 34% upside to price target. Broadcom Overweight with 35% upside. TSMC Overweight with 20% upside. Microsoft Overweight with 42% upside. All featured on MS Americas Thematic Focus List under Tech Diffusion theme.
[E2292] Classic AI stocks have been underperforming since late October while energy, materials, and industrials outperform. The market cap-weighted index of four hyperscalers and Nvidia has declined 5.9% since peaking October 29 and underperformed S&P500 by 5.7%. Energy, Materials, Industrials have outperformed S&P500 by 11.4%, 13%, and 7.6% respectively over the same period.
[E2291] Memory stocks (Hynix, Micron) have massively outperformed as they hold leverage over AI buyers. Hynix and Micron are up 193% and 236% in USD terms over the past five months as memory contract prices surged ~50% last quarter. Hynix has sold out entire 2026 production already. Meanwhile hyperscalers Microsoft, Amazon, Meta are down 14%, 5%, 5% since November.
[E2348] Magnificent 7 earnings grew 24.7% in first three quarters of 2025, while remaining S&P 500 stocks grew 8.7% (above 6.6% trend). Since end of 2019, Mag-7 returned 27.5% annualized and remaining S&P 500 returned 11.0% annualized. Mag-7 profit margins (~26%) are roughly three times broader S&P 500 (~12%). Returns have NOT been driven solely by Mag-7.
[E5623] Mag 7 concentration persists despite geopolitical tensions. Growth earnings from AI capex drives valuation support even with Middle East headlines.
[E5593] Mag 7 companies showing concentration with only 31% of S&P outperforming the index - lowest diversity in 20+ years (comparable to 1998-2000 tech bubble). AI boom unique to US, creating divergence with international companies whose earnings at risk from strong dollar and tariffs.
[E4977] Nvidia back to all-time highs overlaid with Mag-7. Earnings dominating: 12% YoY growth built in, EPS revisions for Mag-7 still positive. If Mag-7 earnings disappoint while small/midcaps surprise, rotation begins. Currently Mag-7 carrying equal weight significantly.