🟢 [E2225] The authors expect the dollar to top out and roll over, citing the 2016-2018 DXY analog. US liquidity is about to rise, expanding the dollar supply, while US growth has been underperforming the rest of the world — the exact environment where the dollar typically weakens. They remain in 'Dollar Smile territory' with structural dollar weakness ahead.

🟢 [E2238] The dollar tends to be strong when US growth is outpacing the rest of the world or when the entire global economy is slowing together. That is NOT where we are today. Growth has been stronger outside the US (per GMI Global ex-US Early Growth Index vs ISM), exactly the environment where the dollar typically weakens.

🟢 [E2245] Crypto was 'the pointy-end of the risk curve when it comes to liquidity' and got hit hardest during the illiquidity crunch. The authors are 'highly optimistic going forward that prices will recover as The Liquidity Flood arrives.' The market looks like it has begun to stabilize and forced selling component appears to be slowly fading.

🟢 [E2231] Gold is described as a 'real-time proxy for financial conditions.' Once the dollar rolls over, gold should make its final big push higher, and that move will provide visibility to pinpoint when the business cycle is likely to peak in 2026. Bitcoin vs gold alligator jaws must close.

🟢 [E2233] Total crypto market cap excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins has massively diverged from Russell 2000, creating even more pronounced alligator jaws than Bitcoin alone. The authors expect a 'very strong' reversal as liquidity conditions normalize and the Russell 2000 correlation reasserts itself.

🟢 [E2222] Pal and Bittel argue Bitcoin has diverged from Global M2 due to TGA rebuild and government shutdown draining liquidity. They expect these 'alligator jaws' to close over the next three months as shutdown impacts fade and 'The Liquidity Flood' begins, with Global M2 set to go vertical into 2026 based on 2016-2018 analog.

🟢 [E2242] Bitcoin diverged from GMI Financial Conditions Index, creating an 'Excess Fear Gap' similar to Q1 when Trump tariff scares caused the same pattern. The TGA rebuild created fragility, the shutdown made it worse, and Trump's China tariff headlines triggered liquidations. 'Once liquidity begins to enter the system again, this Excess Fear Gap will snap shut, and fast.'

🟢 [E2240] Lagging economic data like unemployment is still rising, which 'keeps the Fed engaged.' Most assume rising unemployment is automatically bearish for risk assets, but it depends on context and lead indicator direction (which are rising). The labor market is 'doing exactly what it needs to do to bring rates lower.'

🟢 [E2235] If the 2016-2018 Global M2 analog continues playing out, and the authors believe it will because rising liquidity 'almost guarantees a weaker dollar over the medium term,' then Global M2 is set to go vertical into 2026. Every alligator-jaws chart will feel pressure and snapbacks should be enormous.

🟢 [E2232] Fed rate cut probability for December moved from ~30% to over 90% after September employment report showed unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. Small caps have begun recovering as the market reprices December rate-cut odds. The Russell 2000 recovery supports the thesis that ETH alligator jaws versus Russell will close.

🟢 [E2224] The authors identify the TGA rebuild starting in July as the key driver of the liquidity air pocket. When the TGA is rebuilt aggressively with no offset from the Reverse Repo facility (RRP), liquidity only has one direction to go — down. The government shutdown severely amplified this drain, creating the divergence between Bitcoin and Global M2.

🟢 [E2229] NASDAQ 100 has rallied nearly 60% off April lows into late October, paused in November, and is now realigning with the liquidity trend, sitting just under 3% from all-time highs. Unlike Bitcoin, NASDAQ has tracked Global M2 well and should continue higher as liquidity conditions improve.

🟢 [E2228] SUI completed a technical bottom at exactly $1.34 (the TDST level), forming a double bottom pattern. The daily count completed a price flip with a new Setup on day 2 of 9 higher, while the weekly count flashes a powerful 9/13/9 buy signal. Multi-timeframe DeMark alignment suggests high probability the bottom is in.

🔴 [E2241] Bitcoin had reached 'extremely oversold conditions' with RSI below 30. Historical analysis of the last five times Bitcoin's RSI fell below 30 shows a consistently positive average market path going forward. Current conditions match this oversold setup, suggesting a bottom is in place.

🔴 [E2223] Despite recent Bitcoin weakness, the authors argue this is NOT a bear phase but a technical liquidity air pocket. Bitcoin reached extremely oversold conditions with RSI below 30, and historical analysis shows the average path following such oversold readings is strongly positive. The divergence from fundamentals represents an 'Excess Fear Gap' that will snap shut.

🔴 [E2236] ETH/BTC never priced in the sharp November ISM drop the way BTC did, while Bitcoin dominance was actually pricing in a small ISM rise. The entire correction had 'nothing to do with macro/liquidity fundamentals and everything to do with the deleveraging event.' If this were classic risk-off, alts would have fallen harder — instead they outperformed, which is ultimately 'very bullish.'

🔴 [E2226] The October 10-11 crypto flash crash was the largest BTC liquidation in history, triggered by Trump's China tariff comments and amplified by Binance issues causing massive price dislocations. The authors view this as a technical deleveraging event rather than a fundamental shift, with the forced selling component now slowly fading.

🔴 [E2230] Bitcoin should converge with NASDAQ over coming months in an 'explosive' catch-up move. The 2017 analog (April 2017-February 2018 vs today) remains intact — it only diverged because of the October liquidation event. The divergence began precisely when Trump made tariff announcements on October 10th.

🟢 [E2227] Bittel presents a detailed business cycle framework: the cycle is a recursive feedback loop where rates, liquidity, credit, and sentiment interact in sequence. They are currently in the final phase where credit conditions are easing, rates are moving lower, liquidity is set to accelerate, and earnings revisions are quietly improving — foundations for 2026 cyclical upswing.

💬 [E2244] Bittel acknowledges the framework operates in probabilities not certainties, and explicitly states their job is 'to have a view' and 'stick their neck out.' They encourage users to judge whether the four-year cycle thesis is correct and to 'pick a side and position accordingly.' They are 'extremely confident in our process.'

🟢 [E2243] The GMI Interest Rate Model shows rates were the big factor holding the ISM back this year. As the Fed cuts and The Liquidity Flood comes into focus, these numbers will improve. Lower rates will flow into rate-sensitive sectors first — housing and manufacturing — which 'are usually the earliest to respond' and will drive the next leg of the business cycle higher.

🟢 [E2239] Bittel explains the business cycle dominoes: rates rise, liquidity drains, credit tightens, rate-sensitive sectors respond first (housing, manufacturing), sentiment turns lower, spending falls, earnings compress, hiring stalls, unemployment rises. Then the cycle resets as weakening labor keeps the Fed engaged, rates fall, liquidity returns, and rate-sensitive sectors lead the turn higher.

🟢 [E2237] The ISM was 'meh' with some shutdown noise, but a ton of bad news is already embedded in Bitcoin's price (implied ISM pricing at 45.8), making this 'bullish from a macro perspective.' The average of ISM and S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory above 50 with the trend higher 'very much intact.'

🟢 [E2234] Banks reported the biggest quarterly rise in C&I loan demand in three decades. Combined with easing lending standards across multiple loan categories and rates moving lower, this creates a powerful tailwind for manufacturing sentiment, the ISM, and ultimately earnings in 2026.