🟢 [E1725] Lyn Alden notes energy producers are performing as effective hedge—US and global energy stocks (oil, gas, fertilizers) hitting all-time highs. Continues to hold significant allocation as stagflation/geopolitical hedge.

🟢 [E1698] Lyn Alden notes Hormuz has been effectively closed for >2 weeks, disrupting ~20% of global oil/liquids. Dubai physical oil is already trading ~$140 vs futures near $100. Prolonged disruption remains the biggest market tail risk.

🔴 [E1731] Lyn Alden notes private credit/PE problems are real but not systemic for banks. Bank lending to private credit/equity totals only ~$1.9T (~7-8% of total bank assets), with first losses absorbed by fund investors. Even 50% default wave would be absorbable.

🟢 [E1761] Lyn Alden highlights Adobe as key positive data point for AI-disrupted SaaS: freemium users hit 80 million (+50% YoY), Firefly AI credits jumped 45% QoQ, ARR grew 10.9%. Trades at ~11x forward 2026 earnings with fortress balance sheet—attractive contrarian name.

🟢 [E1762] Lyn Alden notes Bitcoin is showing resilience, not yet a full safe haven. BTC has outperformed S&P 500, gold, and cash since the war began. Simplest explanation is exhausted sellers after >50% drawdown from highs; momentum suggests reasonable DCA zone for long-term bulls.

🟢 [E1760] Lyn Alden notes US economy is at stall speed with two speeds: fiscal-deficit and AI-capex beneficiaries are thriving, while lower-income households, white-collar job seekers, and those hit by inflation are struggling.