🟢 [E4796] Software sector ( IGV) continues structural downtrend. SaaS RPO-to-revenue conversion window closing without adoption benefit. Legacy enterprise software facing displacement. Visser short bias on overvalued software incumbents.

🟢 [E4799] Memory component shortage extending supply shock into Q3 2025. HBM prices elevated; silicon photonics bottleneck emerging. Copper, silver demand from electronics manufacturing sustaining commodity rallies.

🔴 [E4794] May 2025 marked inflection as retail capitulated and momentum collapsed. S&P 500 consolidating near 5,600-5,700 after highs. Breadth divergence warning: only specific sectors (energy, materials) showing strength; technology lagging.

🟢 [E4798] Energy sector resilience despite broader consolidation. Chevron vs. Salesforce trade showing legs; +45% month confirming sector rotation. XLE/IGV trade at inflection; energy outperformance sustains into 2026.

🔴 [E4801] Private credit markets showing stress signals as hyperscaler capex creates liquidity pressure. Leveraged loans straining; default risks rising. Visser warning on leveraged exposure as AI capex cycle moderates.

🔴 [E4797] Nvidia, Broadcom underperformance beginning as capex acceleration slows and competition intensifies. Visser turning negative on semis despite memory strength. Fab capex concentrated; distribution shifts away from traditional leaders.

🟢 [E4800] PMI momentum shifting; manufacturing inflection beginning. Philly Fed outlook improving despite current PMI below 50. Supply backlogs building; capacity constraints evidence of underlying strength.

🔴 [E4795] Hyperscalers cutting capex expectations due to ROI uncertainty and bottleneck constraints. Meta hiring freeze after investor pressure on AI compensation costs. Free cash flow at risk if capex-to-revenue doesn't improve Q2-Q3 2025.