🟢 [E4544] Palantir (Technical Score = 2) fell 37% from Dec 22, 2025 to Feb 13, 2026, then rallied nearly 30% into cresting 40-Week MA. Roque expects it to roll here with risk to $100. Relative vs S&P also toppy. The rally into resistance offers a short entry.

🟢 [E4519] The US 2-Year Treasury Yield is building a potential 20-year 'Brobdingnagian BASE' with a ~500 basis point range. Roque targets 5% (the 2006 and 2024 top of range) as the next level, noting that a breakout from this multi-decade base would imply a target 'NOBODY has priced into any forecast.' Technical signals include a fugazi breakdown reversal, High Pole/High Flag patterns, and weekly MACD approaching positive territory.

🟢 [E4610] The 10-Year Treasury Yield is breaking out of a flat-bottomed triangle formation. Roque quotes Robert Soros: 'The bond market never lies.' He asserts that something always breaks when the 10-Year yield rises — calling it the 'Rocky Marciano of indicators' that remains undefeated.

🟢 [E4521] Only the 3-Month and 6-Month yields remain below Fed Funds. Roque concludes 'you can kiss rate cuts goodbye' as the entire yield curve from 2-years through 30-years has moved above the Fed Funds rate, signaling that rate cuts are fully priced out.

🟢 [E4520] Roque argues the 2-Year Treasury Yield is 'underpriced vis-à-vis oil' and will ultimately become 'public enemy #1' rather than oil. The 2-Year yield broke above a 40+-year downward-sloping trendline in spring 2022, establishing a new rate regime with a Higher High in 2024 and a Higher Low in early March 2026.

🟢 [E4545] Germany's DAX had a January breakout compromised by consecutive downside gaps on Mar 2 (-2.6%) and Mar 3 (-3.4%), converting it to a 'Fugazi Breakout.' DAX is down 13% in March with target of 20000. Below 150-Day MA with negative ROC — another 'Gradually, then suddenly' candidate.

🟢 [E4543] The market is not close to oversold despite feeling terrible. Only 36% of NASDAQ stocks and 49% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-Day MA. AAII Bears at 50% vs. 60% in the last two major declines. Roque warns that expecting a ceasefire rally is consensus — 'complacency is thicker than a Katz's pastrami sandwich.'

🟢 [E4632] The German DAX had a breakout in early January 2026 but consecutive downside gaps on Mar 2 (-2.6%) and Mar 3 (-3.4%) converted it to a fugazi breakout. DAX is down 13% this month with more downside expected to 20000. DAX is below 150-Day MA with negative ROC indicator — a combination that has historically been bad for the DAX.

🟢 [E4532] Market breadth indicators are deteriorating: NYSE Cumulative Net New Highs contracting, NASDAQ version in 'much worse shape.' NYSE Cumulative Breadth and Volume are 'obviously in trouble.' Roque advises staying defensive until indicators get back above their 21-Day MAs with those averages inflecting upward.

🟢 [E4531] NASDAQ support at 22000 won't hold with target of 20000 (-16.5% from 24000 peak). Currently -11%. Since 2018, NASDAQ corrections have been -24%, -33%, -38%, -13%, -16%, and -27%. MACD is deteriorating rapidly. Daily momentum peaked in May yet NASDAQ rallied another 5000 points (26%) to Oct 2025 peak.

🟢 [E4530] S&P 500 support at 6550-6500 won't hold with risk to 6100. MACD and RSI are not oversold. The daily MACD has 'about the smoothest downward-sloping MACD' Roque can recall. He rejects comparisons to COVID (-35%) and Liberation Day (-21%) buying opportunities given the S&P is only down 5% from highs.

🟢 [E4529] High correlations between S&P, NASDAQ, and Big 7 (S&P to Big 7 = 89%; NASDAQ to Big 7 = 94%; S&P to NASDAQ = 98%) made support breaks across indices likely. Roque targeted S&P breaking 6500 to 6100 and NASDAQ breaking 22000 to 20000. S&P now -7.5% from peak but prior MACD patterns produced declines of -20%, -35%, -28%, -11%, and -21% since 2017.

🟢 [E4522] Oil's move is extraordinary but the more consequential signal is that the 2-Year Treasury Yield is 'underpriced vis-à-vis oil.' As the 2-Year yield 'turns in earnest,' Roque expects bigger problems ahead. Oil-yield relationship is flagged as a key macro divergence to monitor.

🟢 [E4542] ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is forming a Head & Shoulders Top pattern with risk to $50. The technical breakdown in innovation/disruptive tech confirms broader weakness in speculative technology exposure. Palantir (PLTR) fell 37% from Dec 22, 2025 to Feb 13, 2026, rallied nearly 30% into cresting 40-Week MA, and Roque expects it to roll here with risk to $100.

🔴 [E4528] Roque admits he was wrong on Tesla — expected breakout in fall 2025 but instead it's breaking support at the 200-Day MA with weak MACD. Technical Score = 0. This was also a fugazi breakout. Risk to $300. The Tesla robotics/autonomy thesis faces near-term technical headwinds.

🟢 [E4524] NVIDIA has produced a negative monthly divergence for only the third time in 26 years. The MACD suggests lower levels ahead with a first target of $160. This is a core technical signal indicating NVDA weakness.

🟢 [E4523] The Big 7/Mag 7 index is broken both on absolute price and relative performance. From Dec 17, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025, the Big 7 lost -29%. From Oct 29, 2025 to present (102 days), the Big 7 is down -21%. These trend breaks represent the most consequential market observation of recent months.

🟢 [E4617] Tesla has Technical Score of 0. Roque admits being wrong on his fall 2025 breakout call — now expects support break at the 200-Day MA with risk to $300. The prior breakout was also a fugazi breakout with weak MACD.

🟢 [E4527] Amazon has Technical Score of 2; a break of $200 support implies a target of $160. Apple has Technical Score of 2 with late 2025 and Feb 2026 breakouts morphing into fugazi breakouts — support at $240 unlikely to hold with risk to $220. Alphabet has Technical Score of 2 with a 32% decline (like the 2025 tariff imbroglio) targeting just under $240, with MACD deteriorating fast and risk to $200.

🟢 [E4526] Microsoft has Technical Score of 0 with MSFT relative performance vs. S&P 500 at COVID lows after a relative top. A move to $350 (2025 low) would match the 2021-2022 decline pattern. MSFT is flat vs. S&P for over 6 years and down -34% since Aug/Oct 2025 highs.

🟢 [E4525] Meta is below its cresting 40-Week MA with MACD in negative territory. Roque's first target is $500 with second target at $425-$440. The technical setup confirms the Mag 7 breakdown is broad-based.

🟢 [E4533] Financials/Banks are 'the market's most important Sector/Group' and JPMorgan is 'the market's most important stock.' JPM is toppy with MACD deteriorating. When JPM falls below its 200-Day MA and that MA crests/rolls, JPM and the S&P have suffered going back to GFC. The pattern is repeating now.

🟢 [E4534] XLF (Financial Sector SPDR) is down in 8 of the last 10 days and 7 of 11 weeks in 2026. Negative momentum divergence is being resolved with 2025 low as the next target. Relative performance vs. S&P is at COVID lows. Since 2018, it has been right to be cautious when S&P and Financials momentum weaken simultaneously.

🟢 [E4536] Since 2017, Bitcoin has traded -52% (2018), -44% (2020), and -55% (2022) below its 200-Day MA before prior big bears ended. The most recent low was only -39% on Feb 9. Bitcoin has not bottomed until it moves back above its 12-Month MA and MACD turns positive. The current structure is 'Not a BASE.'

🟢 [E4537] Bitcoin broke out above 60,000 in March 2024 and gained 100% to Oct 2025 peak — the smallest percentage gain post a monthly breakout in its history. Each successive breakout has also produced a lower MACD peak. The fugazi breakout pattern implies sharp moves in the opposite direction.

💬 [E4538] Big 7, IGV (software ETF), and Bitcoin are trading as 'one trade' — all correlated. This suggests Bitcoin's technical weakness is part of broader risk-asset deleveraging rather than crypto-specific dynamics. The chart overlay demonstrates tight directional correlation.

🟢 [E4535] Bitcoin is in a bear phase with target of $40,000. Currently -48% from Oct 2025 peak (was -52.5% at Feb 6 low). Below downward-sloping 89-Day MA, below 12-Month MA with crested monthly MACD. Prior big bears since 2011 averaged -80% with smallest at -72%; applying -72% implies $35,280. Roque is a seller.

💬 [E4539] Roque notes Bitcoin is the most-asked-about asset in his practice, with 'most wanting to buy it.' This suggests retail sentiment remains bullish despite the deteriorating technical setup — a contrary indicator supporting further downside.

🟢 [E4546] Roque frames the current environment through Herb Stein's maxim: 'If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.' Trend changes for oil, sovereign yields, and Big 7/Mag 7 are the most consequential market observations of recent months. Until these trends revert, the regime shift thesis dominates.

🟢 [E4540] The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is the next 'Gradually, then suddenly' candidate with negative momentum divergence since Feb 2026. Roque recommends selling here with risk to 7000 (350 for SMH) then 6200 (320 for SMH). Micron was +160% above 200-Day MA on Jan 30, now 54% above with $450 resistance and $350 first support, $250 second support.

🟢 [E4541] Micron was 160% above its 200-Day MA on Jan 30, now only 54% above. Resistance at $450, first support at $350, second support at $250. The stock rose 300% in 120 days but momentum is fading — emblematic of the AI capex cycle froth unwinding.