[E890] Goldman Sachs cuts Coinbase target 15% to $264. 4Q25 EPS $1.46 vs $1.39-1.69 consensus, net revenue 3% below Street. Weak 1Q26 guidance: transaction revenue $920mn (11% below), subscription revenue $590mn (22% below). Retail take rate compression from product mix shift and lower Coinbase One fees.
[E656] Asked why crypto is not bouncing with the market, suggesting disconnection from equity recovery.
[E653] Crypto lending yields collapsed — Aave USDC yield at 2.2% down from 6%+ in Nov 2025. USDe yield fell from 5.5% to 3.5%, assets dropped from $15B to $6B.
[E4011] Trade recommendation: BUY HOOD within Core Portfolio. HOOD completed 5-wave lower but no 13-count yet. First weekly 9 buy setup since November 2023. Testing -2 standard deviation band of long-term regression channel. Fifth 40-50% corrective move this cycle — deeply oversold for 70-vol equity equivalent to 10% SPX pullback.
[E4010] Coinbase completed 5-wave move lower into DeMark wave 5 projection at $146 with daily 13 buy counts cluster. Weekly 9 buy setup in play with price reversing below TDST at $160. Added to long-term portfolio in February Flash Update. Circle (CRCL) up 48% since added last month — dominant stablecoin player.
[E3751] Goldman Sachs highlights structural margin compression at Coinbase with retail take rate compression in Q4 due to mix shift from simple to advanced products and larger volume from Coinbase One users with lower fee rates. Management noted this compression could continue. Pre-tax margins (ex. SBC) decline 16pp/3pp for 2026E/27E.
[E3755] Adjusted expenses rose 26% YoY to $1.3bn. Tech & development and G&A guided at $925-975mn for 1Q26 (3% above consensus), driven by Echo and Deribit acquisitions (3pp of 11% sequential increase) and investments in product development, customer support, and compliance infrastructure. Goldman's 2026E/27E pre-tax margins (ex. SBC) decline 16pp/3pp.
[E3752] Goldman Sachs reduces 2026/27 EPS estimates by 46%/11% following COIN's weak Q4 results and softer 1Q26 guidance. Price target cut 15% to $264 from $310, with Q5-Q8 P/E multiple lowered to 31.5x from 34.0x. Core EPS of $1.46 beat GSe of $1.39 but net revenue came in 3% below consensus. Maintains Buy rating with 87% implied upside from $141.09 price.
[E3753] Transaction revenue of $983mn came in 4% below consensus, down 37% YoY. 1Q26 QTD transaction revenue of $420mn implies ~$920mn for the full quarter, 11% below Street estimates. Retail take rate compression noted due to mix shift from simple to advanced products and higher Coinbase One user volumes with lower fee rates.
[E3754] Subscription and services revenue of $727mn came 3% below consensus, up 13% YoY, but 1Q26 guidance of $590mn midpoint is 22% below Street estimates. Lower staking revenue (-16% vs. Street) driven by lower crypto prices and gross staking yield compression as protocol maturation reduces reward rates.
[E3757] Operating expenses elevated in Q4 with adjusted expenses of $1.3bn rising 26% YoY. The sequential 11% increase driven by Deribit and Echo acquisitions (3pp) plus continued investment in product teams, customer support, and compliance infrastructure. 1Q26 tech & G&A guidance of $925-975mn is 3% above consensus.
[E3760] Coinbase repurchased 3.3mn shares in Q4 2025 and a further 4.9mn shares through Feb 10, 2026 as part of the $2bn repurchase program. An additional $2bn authorized by the board in January 2026, demonstrating capital return commitment despite weaker operating results.
[E3759] Goldman's 2026E/27E revenue estimates fall by 10%/7%, while adjusted pre-tax margins (ex. SBC) decrease by 16pp/3pp. The 2026E/27E adjusted EPS estimates decline by 46%/11%, reflecting persistent margin compression from weaker transaction revenue and elevated operating expenses.
[E3770] Goldman maintains Buy rating on COIN despite weaker results, citing long-term revenue diversification potential through the 'Everything Exchange' (prediction markets and equities offerings), stablecoin/payments scaling, and on-chain adoption acceleration. 2026E transaction revenue only falls 2% despite near-term weakness.
[E3396] Coinbase has been 'killed' but shows a 9/13/13/13 DeMark pattern on daily. Weekly pattern is a 'massive expanding range megaphone' that probabilistically leads to much higher prices and would break the cup-and-handle formation. Raoul is doubling his Coinbase position and adding the second position to the long-term book.
[E3397] GMI is explicitly adding to Coinbase at current levels, doubling the position and placing the second tranche in the long-term portfolio book. This represents high conviction in the equity despite the recent selloff.
[E3466] Pal maintains long Coinbase equity position (entry $79.93, +143.6%) and long-term Coinbase position (entry $101.60, +91.7%). COIN June '26 400 Calls (entry $18, -89.2%) are underwater. COIN January '26 400 Calls expired -100%. The positions reflect conviction in crypto infrastructure despite near-term pain.