🟢 [E3409] GMI explicitly adding to positions: buying more SUI, doubling Coinbase position (second tranche to long-term book), new position in Circle, and watching TAO for final entry signal. Also buying digital art (which includes ETH exposure). This represents concentrated positioning in cycle thesis.

💬 [E3408] The spike to $60k and immediate V-shaped recovery to $69k+ within 24 hours has 'all the hallmarks of a liquidation cascade and stop-hunt rather than genuine structural breakdown.' Real breakdowns do not reverse this violently. Price reclaiming $76k would confirm the low. Deribit short-term puts trading 10+ points premium to calls indicates peak fear typically seen at major lows.

💬 [E3404] Bitcoin vs Gold is now the most oversold in history at -2 standard deviations. This extreme relative underperformance creates the setup for significant BTC outperformance vs gold going forward. The confluence of events including gold rally contributed to the liquidity withdrawal that hit BTC.

🟢 [E3406] TAO (Bittensor) has early-stage traction with a 'killer chart' at most oversold levels ever seen. GMI is waiting for final weekly and daily DeMark counts to complete before adding position. This represents interest in decentralized AI compute network as a crypto investment thesis.

🔴 [E3405] GMI explicitly rejects the narrative that BTC and software stocks fell together due to AI disruption (specifically Claude). The actual reason is both are the longest-duration assets, and when marginal liquidity was removed, longest-duration assets got hit hardest. The 'Claude disrupting software' narrative is dismissed as 'total bullshit.'

🟢 [E3396] Coinbase has been 'killed' but shows a 9/13/13/13 DeMark pattern on daily. Weekly pattern is a 'massive expanding range megaphone' that probabilistically leads to much higher prices and would break the cup-and-handle formation. Raoul is doubling his Coinbase position and adding the second position to the long-term book.

🟢 [E3397] GMI is explicitly adding to Coinbase at current levels, doubling the position and placing the second tranche in the long-term portfolio book. This represents high conviction in the equity despite the recent selloff.

🟢 [E3386] GMI attributes the crypto selloff entirely to US liquidity plumbing mechanics. As the TGA rebuilt with no Reverse Repo offset and lacklustre bank credit, this liquidity draw specifically hit long-duration assets (crypto and software). The authors argue this was NOT a fundamental shift but a temporary US plumbing issue that is now 'unclogging.'

🟢 [E3387] GMI Total Global Liquidity (90% correlation to BTC) has broken to new highs, while GMI Financial Conditions continue accelerating. The M2 expansion is already underway across US, Eurozone, China, and Japan at ~$98.6 trillion. The authors argue BTC's deviation is 'noise' and it will play catch-up as US liquidity headwinds resolve in coming weeks.

🟢 [E3388] The increase in TGA with no RRP offset is identified as the key driver of BTC underperformance since July. US Total Liquidity leads BTC and is now rising, suggesting BTC should catch up. The confluence of events (RRP drained > TGA rebuild > shutdown > gold rally > shutdown) caused a liquidity withdrawal not forecast by the authors.

🟢 [E3399] Circle is positioned as 'king of the stablecoins' in a segment growing 50% YoY. GMI views Circle as 'much more than a stablecoin issuer' — a network stock upon which stablecoin activity lives. With stock down 82% from high and IPO digested, this represents a good long-term entry for a structurally important company over coming five years.

🟢 [E3398] Total stablecoin market cap exceeded $314B by end of 2025 after growing ~$100B through the year. USDC grew 73%, USDT grew 36%, and total transaction volumes hit $33T for 2025 (72% YoY increase). GMI views this as dry powder waiting to deploy — in every previous cycle, stablecoin supply growth at this pace has been a leading indicator of the next major leg higher.

🔴 [E3392] Despite ETF complex being significantly underwater (average cost basis ~$84,000 vs current levels), AUM has only declined ~5% from peak holdings of 1.37M BTC. BlackRock IBIT continues attracting capital even on outflow days. The $562M single-day inflow on Feb 2nd was largest since mid-January, demonstrating institutional conviction rather than structural suppression.

🟢 [E3393] GMI maintains strong conviction in SUI despite the 70%+ drawdown. SUI trades at ~45% discount to Solana on Metcalfe's Law fair value with higher beta. Historical precedent: SOL drew down -79% in 2020 then rallied 26x, -67% in 2021 then rallied 12x. ETH fell -73% then rallied 25x. These were all in the last year of bull markets.

🟢 [E3394] SUI has printed three 9s and four 13s on DeMark indicators since November on daily timeframe, with weekly 13 count this week. When ISM moves above 50 (as it now has), block space demand and risk-taking rises with economic activity, historically favouring higher-beta L1s like SUI over BTC. The authors view this as SUI's time to shine.

🟢 [E3395] OTHERS vs Bitcoin relative performance showing alts outperforming BTC in the bloodbath — this dispersion is 'highly constructive.' ETH has daily 9/13/13/9 buy signal in play. A breakout from the OTHERS/BTC channel would confirm Altseason is beginning. Higher-beta assets like ETH and SUI offer 'potentially enormous' opportunity on the other side of this drawdown.

🔴 [E3389] GMI explicitly rejects the bear market thesis, stating they do NOT believe the crypto cycle is over. Despite BTC falling 30%+ and smaller tokens 70%, the authors view this as a 'gut-check in a bull market' rather than crypto winter. Their framework shows nothing has changed to invalidate the Everything Code framework.

🔴 [E3432] Bitcoin vs NASDAQ 100 is the most oversold in relative terms ever seen, close to -2 standard deviations. Within this channel, this is as oversold as 2015 which preceded significant BTC outperformance vs equities. BTC overall is 1-standard deviation oversold vs trend (43% discount to mean). The weight of evidence for a near-term reversal is described as 'overwhelming.'

🔴 [E3430] Elliott Wave analysis shows BTC has completed Wave 4 with Wave 5 ahead. Price structure forming a broadening triangle (bullish continuation pattern). DeMark wave count indicator completed Wave 5 downside target at $65,749 where price reversed higher. Weekly OTHERS chart showing 13 buy signal — last weekly 13 appeared June 2013 ahead of a major move higher.

🔴 [E3390] Bitcoin RSI is the most oversold since November 2018 — more oversold than any point during the last two cycles. This reading corresponds to where BTC was at the start of the previous bull market, not mid-bear. The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index at 5 is the lowest on record, indicating capitulation consistent with cycle lows.

🔴 [E3391] BTC funding rates have plunged to most negative since 2023 (shorts paying longs), over $1B in longs liquidated in 24 hours around the $60,245 spike low, and open interest collapsed to ~$103B multi-month lows. The authors interpret this leverage purge as systematically removing speculative excess — a bullish setup, not bear market confirmation.

🟢 [E3407] Raoul is actively adding positions: buying more SUI, doubling Coinbase position (adding to long-term book), adding new Circle position to long-term portfolio, buying digital art (adding ETH), and watching TAO for entry. Position sizing for individual risk tolerance is emphasized — 'don't rent conviction of others' and never use leverage which leads to permanent capital loss.

🟢 [E3400] GMI expects Trump/Bessent/Warsh to rerun the Greenspan era playbook of high growth, low rates with productivity keeping inflation in check. They will use bank credit rather than central bank balance sheet to provide liquidity. Forward BTC returns following ISM moves to 52.6+ show 55x (2013), 30x (2016-17), and 7x (2020-21) rallies into cycle peaks.

🟡 [E3403] Raoul Pal admits the framework operates in probabilities and acknowledges 'we can't get every moving part right all the time.' The document explicitly addresses subscriber scepticism ('I know how hard it is to hear bullish narratives when things feel so bleak') while defending the track record in full-cycle investing.

🟢 [E3402] The authors acknowledge their mistake in not seeing US liquidity as the current driving factor (vs Global Total Liquidity that dominates full cycles). They state they would not have traded the temporary drawdown anyway, but it would have been 'nice to have warned' subscribers. They emphasize continuously stress-testing the thesis and 'earning conviction' rather than renting it.

🟢 [E3401] With ISM back above 50, the business cycle is reaccelerating — historically favouring ETH over BTC as block space demand and risk-taking rises with economic activity. BTC has severely disconnected from the business cycle in the latest downdraft; these 'alligator jaws will close.' The $3T to $100T crypto market cap move is what matters; everything else is noise.