🟢 [E7792] Chinese rare earth export controls remain in place despite the US-China trade deal, suggesting continued supply constraints on critical materials. Gromen cites this as evidence the deal is not the comprehensive US victory consensus believes, implying structural commodity bottlenecks persist.

🟢 [E7782] Gromen argues the US-China trade deal is not the consensus victory it appears. Simultaneous US restrictions on Huawei AI chips globally, continued Chinese rare earth export controls, and a Russia-China joint statement mentioning nuclear weapons 37 times suggest US constraints rather than dominance. The speed of deal-making suggests desperation after Treasury market dysfunction.

🟢 [E7785] Gromen argues 'sell USD' is the correct reaction to trade deals over the next 6 months. The Trump administration may implement capital controls via foreign withholding taxes on US financial assets, potentially generating $360 billion annually while raising cost of carry for foreign investors, forcing capital flows from financial to real assets and structurally weakening the dollar.

🟢 [E7783] Gromen identifies a 'Bessent Put' where Treasury/Fed intervenes when the MOVE Treasury volatility index exceeds 135, analogous to the prior 'Yellen Put.' The US government cannot afford sustained equity declines without triggering a debt spiral because 6-7% GDP deficits depend on tax receipts from rising stock markets. Potential SLR exemption could unlock $2 trillion in additional bank balance sheet capacity for Treasury purchases.

🔴 [E7787] Gromen argues sustained equity declines are structurally unsustainable because the US runs 6-7% GDP deficits and relies on tax receipts from rising stock markets. Declines reduce receipts, increase Treasury issuance, and could trigger a debt spiral, forcing policy accommodation. The 'Bessent Put' at MOVE 135 creates structural support. Recommends buying stocks alongside gold and BTC over next 6 months.

🟢 [E7784] Gromen recommends buying gold over the next 6 months, driven by structural US fiscal dynamics forcing policy accommodation. A central bank survey shows continued shift from USD reserves to gold over a 5-year horizon. Potential foreign withholding taxes on US financial assets could force capital flows from financial assets into real assets and gold. Consensus misread of trade deals as bullish USD is creating a gold selling opportunity Gromen views as wrong.

💬 [E7791] Gromen flags military escalation risk despite apparent US-China trade deals, noting Russia-China joint statement mentioning nuclear weapons 37 times. This suggests geopolitical tensions remain elevated with potential for actual conflict, which could cascade into supply shocks despite the surface-level diplomacy.

💬 [E7788] Gromen argues Chinese AI chip capabilities are far more competitive than consensus believes, citing the US issuing worldwide legal restrictions on Huawei AI chips as evidence. He asks rhetorically why the US never had to threaten everyone against Soviet Lada cars but does so against supposedly 'inferior' Chinese AI chips. BYD outselling Toyota in Singapore for the first time corroborates Chinese tech competitiveness.

🟢 [E7790] Gromen identifies Treasury market dysfunction as the binding constraint forcing US policy accommodation. The 'Bessent Put' at MOVE Index 135 shows active liquidity management. Potential SLR exemption could unlock $2 trillion in bank balance sheet capacity for Treasury purchases, representing a major liquidity injection mechanism. These dynamics force sustained accommodation regardless of other policy goals.

🟢 [E7794] Potential SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) exemption could unlock approximately $2 trillion in additional bank balance sheet capacity for Treasury purchases. This represents a significant deregulatory measure that would expand banks' capacity to absorb government debt issuance while easing balance sheet constraints.

🔴 [E7786] Gromen is explicitly bullish on Bitcoin over the next 6 months, recommending 'buy BTC' alongside gold and stocks. The structural fiscal dynamic where the US cannot afford sustained equity declines without a debt spiral forces policy accommodation that benefits Bitcoin. This challenges any near-term bear thesis for Bitcoin.

🟢 [E7795] Gromen recommends a specific multi-asset allocation over the next 6 months: buy gold, buy BTC, buy stocks, and sell USD. This reflects a structural view that US fiscal dynamics force policy accommodation benefiting all risk assets simultaneously while weakening the dollar, suggesting a barbell of hard assets and equities against fiat currency.

🟢 [E7789] Gromen frames the current regime as one where US fiscal dynamics (6-7% GDP deficits, reliance on stock market tax receipts) structurally prevent sustained deflation in risk assets. Treasury market dysfunction forces rapid policy accommodation, creating a regime where gold, BTC, and stocks all benefit simultaneously while the USD weakens — a structural shift from traditional macro frameworks.

🟢 [E7793] Gromen highlights Chinese technology capabilities as stronger than consensus recognizes, citing BYD outselling Toyota in Singapore for the first time and Huawei AI chip competitiveness evidenced by US global restrictions. This supports the thesis that Chinese companies are gaining global market share and technological parity.