🟢 [E1047] If Middle East crisis resolves quickly, the author expects the US dollar to sink and markets to price in rate cuts from the Fed and Bank of England.

🔴 [E1072] Contrary to the popular view among macro pundits, US Treasuries are not the 'ultimate AI trade.' Authors see no real value in them regardless of the AI deflation narrative on a 12-18 month horizon.

🔴 [E1174] No evidence AI automation is responsible for current low hiring rates — young people with cognitive skills are not experiencing worse labour market outcomes than those without.

🟢 [E1794] If Middle East crisis resolved quickly, expect global equities to recover and US dollar to sink — supporting international equity thesis.

🟢 [E1028] Article thesis: the true risk to the US economy is a 1990-style cyclical downturn triggered by surging Middle East energy prices, which could paralyse the Federal Reserve and squeeze real incomes.

🔴 [E1069] The 'Citrini doom' bear case, where rapid AI automation triggers mass job losses and systemic crises in private credit, is wildly overstated. AI disruption will not cause a recession on its own.