🟢 [E9364] Gromen outlines four options for Europe: 1) US sends more energy at cost of higher US inflation, 2) miracle energy productivity, 3) détente with Russia paying in EUR settled in goods/gold, or 4) Asian-style currency/economic crisis. Options 3 and 4 both imply erosion of US geopolitical control over allied energy markets.

🟢 [E9359] Gromen argues EU and Japan face economic collapse unless they abandon dollar-denominated energy purchases in favor of local currency (EUR/JPY) settlements backed by goods and gold. Asia (India, China, SCO) is already implementing de-dollarization, gaining competitive advantage over Europe/Japan which remain trapped in USD energy pricing.

🟢 [E9360] Treasury liquidity has declined to March 2020 crisis levels with widening bid-ask spreads. Foreign central banks have dumped $300 billion in USTs while Fed conducts $95 billion monthly QT. Combined with potential recession-driven deficit expansion, this creates a severe supply/demand imbalance risking auction dysfunction.

🟢 [E9361] Biden's deal to pay rail workers is framed as the mirror image of Reagan firing air traffic controllers in 1981 — the latter marked the start of the 40-year bond bull market, while the former may mark its end by signaling a structural shift from capital back to labor.

🟢 [E9368] The analysis presents a classic inflationary bust dynamic: physical economy (energy, commodities) constraining the financial/digital economy. US shale degradation, European mandatory electricity cuts, and the impossibility of quickly increasing energy supply demonstrate physical economy dominance over monetary policy intentions.

🟢 [E9367] Gromen assigns 25-40% probability that the Fed continues hiking to geopolitically break Russia, which would risk a 1987-style market crash. FedEx's 40% earnings collapse on modest volume declines demonstrates how high-fixed-cost corporate operations create massive earnings destruction in a downturn, signaling broader equity risk.

🟢 [E9357] US shale executives explicitly state 'there's no bailout coming' for Europe — neither on oil nor gas. Shale quality is degrading (15 data points supporting degradation thesis) and the strong USD is approaching levels that historically suppress US oil production for 3-4 years, making production increases impossible.

🟢 [E9358] European energy crisis is accelerating with mandatory 5% electricity consumption cuts during peak hours. Rising energy costs in USD terms will force Europe and Japan to seek alternative payment mechanisms for energy imports, as current dollar-denominated energy purchases are becoming economically unsustainable.

🟢 [E9365] Gold is positioned as the settlement mechanism for de-dollarized energy trade. Gromen argues EU and Japan will ultimately need to settle energy imports in local currencies backed by goods and gold, while Asian nations already implementing this shift. This creates structural demand for gold as a trade settlement asset.

💬 [E9369] While not directly addressing Iran/Hormuz, Gromen's thesis that 'there's no bailout coming' on oil or gas supply reinforces that any additional supply disruption (such as Hormuz closure) would be catastrophic given US shale's inability to increase production and structural quality degradation across 15 identified data points.

🟢 [E9362] FedEx's 40% earnings miss (guiding $3.44 vs $5.14 expected) signals a global recession beginning, with the CEO expecting worldwide economic downturn. Gromen characterizes the Fed as operating 'a switch with just two settings: US economy on, and US economy off,' indicating overtightening will force a pivot back to QE.

🟢 [E9363] Gromen expects a Fed pivot by end of September 2022 due to accumulating economic damage. The combination of Fed QT, foreign central bank UST selling, and recessionary fiscal deficits creates conditions that will force the Fed to reverse course and resume quantitative easing.

💬 [E9370] Bitcoin is listed as a primary entity in the analysis alongside gold as part of the de-dollarization settlement infrastructure. The expected Fed pivot back to QE (forced by Treasury dysfunction) would be a catalyst for Bitcoin, though the near-term environment of Fed tightening and global recession signals continued bear phase pressure.

🟢 [E9366] Gromen frames the current moment as a structural regime change: the Reagan-era 40-year bond bull market ending, energy as the master resource forcing geopolitical realignment, and the Fed facing an impossible trilemma between inflation control, Treasury market function, and economic growth. The FedEx miss is cited as the leading indicator of this regime break.