🟢 [E2072] Bear case gaining traction: as inventories deplete and supply chains break, energy shortages intensify, inflation spikes, bonds sell off further, and long-dated oil rises sharply. No clear path to peace, Iran benefits economically from disruption.

🟢 [E2079] Recent market action shows tech, comms, financials, discretionary down YTD while industrials, energy, staples, materials outperforming. Investors prioritizing durability over disruption. Stay overweight energy.

🟢 [E2071] In the inflationary bust bear case, positioning should include buying oversold precious metals as inflation spikes and bonds sell off further.

🟢 [E2078] No clear path to peace; incentives to continue conflict remain high. Fragmented Iranian command structure complicates negotiations. Shipping risks + insurance costs = structural inflation pressure. Iran economically benefits from disruption.