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Bitcoin Cycle — Bear Phase & Directional Positioning

Bitcoin’s break of a three-year momentum floor signals a ‘young and fresh’ bear phase with potential downside to the mid-$40,000s if matching 2022 momentum extremes.

Thesis Health

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Thesis / Overview

Bitcoin’s break of a three-year momentum floor signals a ‘young and fresh’ bear phase with potential downside to the mid-$40,000s if matching 2022 momentum extremes.

Key claims

🟢 Supporting    🔴 Challenging    🟡 Contested    💬 Commentary

🟢 Supporting Evidence (43)

  • Approx 30% cash. Largest investment is BTC. Largest equity is TSLA. [@Gary Winters] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Thinking of adding 2% portfolio to bitcoin calls MBT 105K strike exp 6-26-2026 for potential rebound next month or so. Plan is start averaging in June for 4-year cycle theory. Let OTM Bitcoin calls ride to zero in case wrong and this is the bottom. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Lyn Alden notes Bitcoin is showing resilience, not yet a full safe haven. BTC has outperformed S&P 500, gold, and cash since the war began. Simplest explanation is exhausted sellers after >50% drawdown from highs; momentum suggests reasonable DCA zone for long-term bulls. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • BofA Flow Show: $0.8bn outflow from crypto. BTC down 23.6% YTD. [@Mike Arnold] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Last time I questioned GMI’s liquidity I saved myself a fall from 105k BTC to 62k BTC. I’m not staying fully long in crypto just because the banana-men say liquidity is coming. [@Will B] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • MSA: BTC’s 3-quarter momentum only recently broke a three-year floor, has hit minimum 60,000 downside target (low 60,005 this month) and could reach mid-40,000s if matching mid-2022 momentum extremes. Current levels ‘hardly deserving of a bottom’. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Peter Brandt remains bearish on crypto, framing the selloff as ‘campaign selling’. Sketches potential BTC target range of $54K-$64K after the prior $95K ascending triangle failure. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Gromen states he has sold BTC, and will not buy back until either much lower prices, more time passes, or ‘nuclear printing’. BTC Treasury companies face Strategy-style forced liquidation risk. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Received ~18% back from FTX on Mar 31. Most of distribution done now with long tail of smaller payments over several years. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Weekly signals show defensive posture with rebuild losing sponsorship. ETF support flipped from strong inflows early in week to three-day outflow streak. BTC 47% below old peak, feels more vulnerable to flush than ready for clean pump. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Looking to derisk at around $90k as a counter trend rally may be completing. Last cycle’s peak to trough was -77.6% over 376 days — if repeated, we’d be at $28.5k in mid October 2026. [@Will B] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Knox expects a bounce into April-May which he will use to raise cash and prepare for a bottom in October. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Shared crypto downturn article: Bitcoin lost half its value since October peak at $126,080. Monthly trading volume lowest since Jan 2024. Q1 crypto fundraising fell 69%. Gemini laid off 30%, Crypto.com cut 12%. [@Scott Leavitt] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Sold all my CRCL into the rally. Have enough exposure to stablecoins through BMNR and COIN, so was happy to take profits and raise cash. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Institutional money influx delays. Available capital redirected to AI capex. Next priority space-based industrial launch. BTC may not have another banana zone, ever. Possibly just appreciation from routine asset allocation, network adoption, regulatory progress. Expect reduced cyclicality. [@Mark Tetreault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Would base it on real economy sucking money away from speculation. Lots of weapons and real things need manufacturing - if money going there, less for long duration/financial assets. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Latest weekly: market kept trying to bounce but bounces looked rented. Floor still there but creaks more. ETF support too weak to call real sponsorship. Still rebuild not breakout. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Knox expects a bounce into April-May which he will use to raise cash and prepare for a bottom in October. Working with GANN time cycles independently of 4-year cycle followers. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • We were wondering who was selling all the stuff Saylor is buying… This is the beginning of the capitulation. Should see real crises over next 2-4 months as cycle makes solid bottom. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Weekly signal: rebuild lost momentum as ETF flows flipped from strong inflows early in week to three-day outflow streak. BTC ~47% below old peak. More vulnerable to flush than ready for clean pump. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • My own portfolio has changed dramatically since October - stocks have gained more of my money and crypto is unlikely to get it back short-medium term. Crypto’s performance since 10/10 has ruined its reputation for me. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Analysis suggests BTC may have more downside. Identified potential early March bump but overall bearish near-term outlook. [@Ben Cowen (cited)] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Given insanely reliable cyclicality, no reason to start averaging in before June. Wants to see treasury companies blow up and mainstream news say crypto is dead before buying. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Last cycle peak to trough was -77.6% over 376 days. If repeated would put BTC at $28.5k by mid-October 2026. However, doesn’t think it gets much below $55k. [@Will B] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Updated power law projections detect September as the latest peak. Sold all SOL, now 99% out of crypto. Log regression suggests $40-50K floor. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Charlie Morris says none of the passive portfolios have any crypto exposure yet and it’s proving very difficult to get them to add allocation. Managed to get BOLD on portfolio 7 but no one allocates to extreme portfolios - everyone uses 2-6. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Crypto had its leg lower earlier in year, since then sideways (or bear flag per some TAs). Transaction fees chart shows minimal activity. Maybe it’s as simple as Year 4 of cycle - come back in Q4. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Sold Bitcoin CALLs down 90%. Should have more faith in these cycles. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Agrees with cycle chart created by Syko showing current market positioning. [@Mark Griffin] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • We were wondering who was selling all the stuff Saylor is buying. This is the beginning of capitulation. Should see real crises over next 2-4 months as cycle makes solid bottom. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • BTC sitting about 47% below old peak. Still feels more vulnerable to a flush than ready for a clean pump because sponsorship walked away. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Bitcoin Sunday Signal analysis: defensive, twitchy range vibe. ETF demand showed up in bursts but not smoothly. BTC behaved like a tech sleeve with rallies not feeling ‘owned’. Feels like deep pullback/repair mode. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Since November, sold down crypto to <5%. Even sold yesterday. Of what’s left, predominantly Solana. Want to get back into crypto but it looks like shit and timing may be wrong. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • For Bitcoin’s own price cycle, it feels like late-correction / early-bear transition. Directionally leans more toward choppy-to-down than a clean upside grind. BTC acting like high-beta tech sleeve. [@Tom van Buren] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • According to astro work, March looks like another bloodbath. Even if October brings the bottom, wouldn’t expect serious gains before 2028. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • SOL chart looks particularly bad. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Gut feeling is we see $30k or close. Might come earlier than October consensus, maybe July. Would start DCA from $40k or wait to see lower high pattern broken. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Last cycle’s peak to trough was -77.6% over 376 days. If repeated, we’d be at $28.5k in mid October 2026, though doesn’t think it will get that low. [@Will B] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Updated power law projections detecting September as the latest peak. Sold the last of SOL, now 99% out of crypto. Log regression says like $40-50K. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Raoul’s charts are fundamentally broken, from an era when global liquidity was fungible. Now you need to model more granularity in flows. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Both crypto and software emerged from the 2010s when growth was anemic and excess monetary inflation went to the digital realm. Now we have a real capex liquidity sink from AI. The liquidity flows won’t be the same as before for a while. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Chris Tipper explains why alligator jaws (BTC vs liquidity) didn’t close. [@Mark Griffin] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • The S&P and NASDAQ continued to rise or at worst went flat. Stocks outside Mag7 did great. So BTC just disconnected for some other reason. My problem is BTC has lost my trust. It needs to start trading normally again before I can fully recommit. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source

🔴 Challenging Evidence (11)

  • Hartnett data: bitcoin down 18.7% YTD while oil up 67.7%. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Not super constructive for 2026 but skeptical of extreme bearish calls. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Wants a champagne alert at 250k. Just another downturn to live through. [@Mark Tetreault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Challenged the timing — Charlie should be pushing crypto after price has gone up, not before. Now should be pushing energy mutual funds not crypto. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Can see the no banana zone argument but would still expect crypto to outperform Nasdaq in market rebounds. [@Gaetan Warzee] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Referenced his February view that he’s ‘not constructive… yet’ on crypto, implying potential turn ahead but not yet positioned for it. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Crypto allocation remains the same. Just another downturn to live through. Will wait it out. [@Mark Tetreault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Don’t think we get there. Don’t think we get much below $55k. [@Will B] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Raoul Pal’s latest Pro report remains bullish on SUI, says it could be a generational buying opportunity. [@Mark Griffin] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • S&P and NASDAQ continued to rise or went flat. Stocks outside Mag7 did great. BTC just disconnected for some other reason. At some point BTC will reconnect. ‘My problem is BTC has lost my trust. It needs to start trading normally again before I can fully recommit.’ [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Disagrees that liquidity explains disconnect. Thinks it’s not complicated - BTC is just on a 4 year cycle related to supply flow halving. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source

🟡 Contested / Debated (1)

  • Uneasy that Saylor and STRC might be the only bid in the market. Doesn’t deny BTC’s relative strength right now, looks great, and sell-off has already been big. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source

💬 Commentary & Context (19)

  • Quinn Thompson’s views useful - crypto bounce looking a little tired. Not particularly bearish crypto, think a lot priced in. Will remain focused on BTC and apps (HYPE, TAO) rather than L1s which have less tailwind. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Latest GMI piece gives lot of reasons to be bullish especially in crypto. Still optimistic going forward, timing is the issue. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Jordi is more bearish S&P than Bitcoin. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • I have spoken to Raoul. When I ask about SUI he says ‘I don’t know anything about it. Really, just like the chart. It’s a beautiful setup and the management team is great.’ Never has it been more important to do your own due diligence. [@Mark Tetreault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Interesting to see that SUI remains Raoul’s favoured bet in this cycle. [@Mark Griffin] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Real economy sucking money away from speculation. Weapons and manufacturing need funding, leaving less for long duration/financial assets. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Exposed already anyway, will concentrate on crypto again when animal spirits return. Would start DCA from $40k or wait to see lower high pattern broken. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Equities rally driven by short covering after heavy selling during Iran war. Crypto has been range bound since Feb, trading flat. Gold and Silver reacting similarly - sideways since February. [@Gary Winters] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Asked why crypto not bouncing with market. Can see no banana zone but expected crypto to outperform Nasdaq in rebounds. Though it held up way better than expected. [@Gaetan Warzee] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • According to astro work, March looks like another bloodbath, but astro has been unreliable lately. Even if October brings the bottom, wouldn’t expect serious gains before 2028. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • BTC @ $36,754 in six months (responding to industry downturn article). [@Mark Tetreault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Interesting how many people have come round to Ben Cowen timeline. Makes me start to think he’ll be wrong if it’s becoming consensus. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • The move is time OR price - want to start averaging in June OR when BTC sustainably below $60k, averaging weekly over 6-12 months starting smaller and going bigger as price goes down. [@Jesse] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Remember BTC at $16k, ‘everyone’ saying it’s going to $12. We could go up or we could go down. [@James S] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • The key question: what would make it revert? If hyperscaler capex peaks or debt issuance normalises, does the competing bid evaporate and liquidity flow back to crypto? [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Thinks Cowen may be right about crypto having another leg down before October, not for BTC-specific reasons but purely because everything sells off if T-bonds and banks crack. [@Stuart Hardy] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Risk assets, gold, and Bitcoin are reacting with classic 3-month lag. Q4 2025 liquidity slowdown now feeding through: Bitcoin has seen a sharp Q1 2026 rout (exacerbated by Middle East conflict). [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Doesn’t deny BTC relative strength right now, looks great. Sell-off has already been big. Uneasy that Saylor and STRC might be only bid in market. [@thibault] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source
  • Bitcoin saw sharp Q1 2026 rout exacerbated by Middle East conflict. Howell predicts BTC more likely to hit $30k than $90k. Liquidity remains dominant driver but technical indicators show weakening momentum. [@Nicky Adam] (2026-04-07 — fresh) → source

Counter-arguments & data gaps

What would change this view

Events reckoned with

  • BTC major drawdown event that changed crypto market dynamics — reckoned 2026-10-10
  • FTX distributes ~18% of remaining funds to creditors — reckoned 2026-03-31
  • FTX distribution - ~18% paid out to creditors — reckoned 2026-03-31
  • The Information reports crypto industry in survival mode with major layoffs — reckoned 2026-03-30
  • BTC at $36,754 level discussed as potential 6-month target — reckoned 2026-03-30
  • Bitcoin lost half of its value since peaking early October at $126,080 — reckoned 2026-03-30
  • Bitcoin down ~50% from October 2025 peak at $126,080 — reckoned 2026-03-30
  • The Information reports crypto downturn approaching 6-month mark with no end in sight — reckoned 2026-03-30
  • Three-day ETF outflow streak ending week, rebuild loses sponsorship — reckoned 2026-03-26
  • ETF flows flipped from strong inflows early week to three-day outflow streak — reckoned 2026-03-22
  • FOMC meeting Mar 17-18 — reckoned 2026-03-17
  • CPI release affecting risk sentiment — reckoned 2026-03-11
  • BTC popped toward low-$70Ks then slipped back to high-$60Ks — reckoned 2026-03-08
  • James S notes Bitcoin has lost his trust due to abnormal trading behavior — reckoned 2026-03-04
  • Chris Tipper analysis on why BTC-liquidity alligator jaws didn’t close — reckoned 2026-03-04
  • Discussion of alligator jaws not closing - BTC divergence from equities — reckoned 2026-03-04
  • Jesse’s power law model detects September as latest BTC peak — reckoned 2026-02-11
  • Jesse’s power law projections detect September as the latest cycle peak — reckoned 2026-02-11
  • BTC hit 60,005 low, meeting MSA’s minimum downside target — reckoned 2026-02-01
  • Q1 2026 Bitcoin rout begins — reckoned 2026-01-01
  • Something changed in crypto - potential blow-up or structural shift marking cycle change — reckoned 2025-10-10
  • BTC structural break - something changed, possibly major participant blowup — reckoned 2025-10-10