Iran / Hormuz — Events Ledger (P4 Prototype)
Detailed event-to-evidence mapping for the Hormuz theme, annotating which evidence items reckon with which events. This is the DD22 event-reckoning system in practice.
Event Timeline
2026-02-28 — Hormuz closure begins (Day 0)
What happened: Iranian forces close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Evidence that reckons with this event:
- R051 (Hormuz Crisis Trade Playbook) — deployed trade structure in response
- R052 (Tindale 12-Order Cascade) — full cascading failure model built from this event
- MF thesis (Persistent Geopolitical Conflict) — treated as kinetic expression of structural thesis
2026-03-03 — Day 3: Initial market response
What happened: Crude spikes, tanker stocks surge, first-order repricing begins. Evidence that reckons with this event:
- R029 (Tindale Hormuz Cascading Risk) — thesis mapping confirms H05/H06/H07/H08/H10 all STRONGLY CONFIRMS
- R028 (H10 Re-Expression: Geopolitical Tanker) — FRO identified as top pick, BWET +243% YTD
- DHT calls closed — Jesse’s shipping expression under pressure despite correct thesis direction
2026-03-12 — Day 12: Iranian leader declares Strait closed as “tool of pressure”
What happened: Formal political declaration. UBS Day 12 report published. Evidence that reckons with this event:
- Slack digest 2026-03-13 [@Stuart Hardy] — FFTT Day 12: “closure could last weeks, markets badly underpricing it”
- Slack digest 2026-03-13 [@Stuart Hardy] — UBS Day 12: US Navy escort not ready until end of March
- Slack digest 2026-03-13 [@Stuart Hardy] — Macrotourist: some geopolitical events ARE regime-changing
Evidence that does NOT reckon with this event:
- (None identified — all Hormuz evidence post-dates this declaration)
2026-03-14 — Day 14: Trade structure deployed
What happened: Betting markets show 82% closure probability through end-March. R051 trade structure deployed. Evidence that reckons with this event:
- R051 v1 — 8-leg trade, $350K / 4.7% NAV
- R051 v2 (Calendar) — revised to 6 legs after VLO/MPC/CF/NTR priced in
2026-03-18 — Day 18: Institutional recognition
What happened: BCA publishes Hormuz Crisis Dashboard. Citrini creates beneficiary basket. Evidence that reckons with this event:
- Slack digest 2026-03-18 [@Will B] — BCA dashboard shared
- Slack digest 2026-03-18 [@Thibault] — Citrini basket noted
- Slack digest 2026-03-18 [@Michael Moshiri] — UN weapons inspector: military action “largely lost already”
- Slack digest 2026-03-18 [@Jesse] — no flight to safety in bonds OR consumer staples in wartime
2026-04-03 — Day ~34: Duration pricing debate
What happened: Brent above $110, WTI $97. FFTT and TGMACRO publish major updates. First contrarian signal appears. Evidence that reckons with this event:
- Slack digest 2026-04-03 [@Stuart Hardy] — FFTT: “paper oil manipulations merely buy time”; V-shaped recovery “structurally flawed”
- Slack digest 2026-04-03 [@Mike Arnold] — TGMACRO: “Oil Only Safe Haven”; 2s/10s flattened from 75 to 45bps
- Slack digest 2026-04-03 [@Thibault] — post-conflict midstream boom; $200+ oil possible but unsustainable
- Slack digest 2026-04-03 [@Will B] — shorting sterling as asymmetric expression
- Slack digest 2026-04-03 [@Jesse] — YouTube video on US-Iran war trade ideas
- Slack digest 2026-04-03 [@James S] — Lyn Alden “needs Iran to resolve”; Jordi “CPI >6% if oil stays”
Evidence that does NOT yet reckon with this event:
- R051 trade playbook — last updated Day 14, hasn’t incorporated Day 34 price levels or the V-shape debate
- R052 Tindale cascade — static analysis, hasn’t been updated with real-world cascade observations
Events NOT YET RECKONED WITH (soft flags per DD22)
| Event | Date | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent above $129 (current) | 2026-04-04+ | UNRECKONED | R051 exit triggers may need revision; $200+ scenario from Thibault gaining plausibility |
| Any ceasefire/negotiation signals | TBD | WATCH | Would trigger unwind protocol from R051 |
| US Navy escort deployment status | End of March deadline passed | UNRECKONED | Stuart Hardy’s timeline has lapsed — what actually happened? |
| OPEC response to Hormuz closure | TBD | UNRECKONED | No member evidence addresses OPEC’s position |
| Insurance market response (war-risk premiums) | Ongoing | UNRECKONED | Affects tanker economics (R028/H10) but no evidence gathered |
Template Observations (P4 meta-notes)
This ledger prototype reveals several design questions for the automated system:
- Granularity: Events should be concrete and datable, not vague (“tensions escalate”). The day-numbering system from R051 works well.
- “Unreckoned” detection: The automated lint loop needs to cross-reference: (a) known events from news/data feeds, (b) evidence items in the theme, (c) which evidence items post-date which events. This is tractable.
- Soft flags: The “UNRECKONED” flags above would render on the theme page as: ”⚠ Last updated before Brent $129 (2026-04-04)” — per DD22.
- Evidence-to-event mapping: Each evidence item should carry metadata about which events it has reckoned with. This is implicit in timestamps but should be explicit for the lint loop.