Semis Vs Software Is Breaking The Market Scarcity Vs Abundance

Author: Jordi Visser Date: 2026-01-18 Type: transcript Evidence: 5 Themes: 5

copper-specialty-commodities-bottleneck

🟢 [E5141] Scarcity phase in materials replacing 30-year commodity abundance. AI capex drives demand for specialized metals, rare earths, and mining capacity while supply remains constrained by ESG underinvestment.
supporting · 2026-01-18

us-hegemony-geopolitical-regime-shift

🟢 [E5144] US tech dominance built on software export hegemony is ending as code commoditizes and hardware nationalism drives reshoring. Capital flows rebalancing from US tech to global materials.
supporting · 2026-01-18

energy-sector-structural-positioning

🟢 [E5143] Energy and materials lead 2026 performance on AI capex power requirements and reshoring. Unlike inflation cycles, this is capacity-driven with supply constraints on permitting, mining, and grid build.
supporting · 2026-01-18

ai-disruption-knowledge-economy

🟢 [E5140] US software dominance since Netscape 1993 through AI commoditizes code, shifting alpha from software to hardware, semiconductors, and materials. The 30-year global coding hegemony built via capital surplus is ending.
supporting · 2026-01-18

macro-cycle-frameworks

🟢 [E5142] Shift from extreme 5-year concentration (30% breadth) to broadening (7% breadth). This structural transition favors small/mid-cap, materials, energy while technology faces secular reallocation.
supporting · 2026-01-18