🟢 [E2434] Dollar Index broke major momentum structures in March and April 2025 (from 104.21) and has 'lived below those breakage levels since.' Price chartists have been buying the dollar 'with no success' as momentum remains broken. A monthly close below 97 starts the 'next phase of what will likely be a major decline.' Current DXY at 97.45.

🟢 [E2435] Dollar weakness will affect other markets once price confirms what momentum has already declared. 'Price is often lagged to its own momentum trend shifts' — the price chart hasn't fully reflected the March 2025 momentum breakdown, but 'if price slips much more, then even the price chart folks will realize something is wrong! Too late, though.'

🟢 [E2432] Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) broke out in October 2025 on annual momentum, signaling the start of the next major up-leg. Price at 119.58 is only halfway back to 2008 levels, and vastly cheaper when adjusting for dollar debasement. A monthly close at 119+ would confirm a major price breakout. 'Expect the resurgence of real assets, in the tail wind of what gold and silver have already been declaring for several years.'

🟢 [E2433] Commodities remain cheap despite the upturn — BCOM price is still only halfway to 2008 levels and 'even vastly cheaper if you factor in the ongoing and massive decade-by-decade collapse in the real value/buying power of the U.S. fiat currency.' The bull move has been 'quiet and gone mostly unnoticed.'

🟢 [E2423] Key structural breakdown levels are converging: a monthly close below 6760 would break the uptrend through lows over 3+ years. Once broken, attention shifts to the 3-year average at 5415.5 — a massive 22% below current levels. This year's January low at 6789 validated the uptrend structure by bouncing off 6760.

🟢 [E2422] Oliver argues the S&P 500 is in an 'arduous topping process' since early 2025, with downside to reveal itself soon. The market may first get above 7,000 before rolling over. Key downside trigger levels are tightly clustered: 40-week momentum breaks at 6816, 100-week momentum at 6825, and annual momentum zero line at 5415.5. The 3-year average momentum floor was tested in April 2025 to within 2% but hasn't closed below since 2022.

🟢 [E2455] Commercial Real Estate (RWR) may provide early warning for broader equity downturn. The sector has been 'comatose for years' with no new highs since late 2021. A monthly close below $94.73 this year breaks annual momentum, with quarterly momentum providing earlier warning at $97. Oliver expects RWR breakdown to 'likely coincide with the broad market downturn' and perhaps lead it.

🟢 [E2424] Oliver expects 'another month or so' of upside effort before structures break. Weekly momentum on 40-week and 100-week averages both show tight structural support that will break with weekly closes at 6816 and 6825 respectively. These triggers adjust upward weekly by 36 and 18 points respectively.

🟢 [E2431] Oliver holds personal positions in OIH (Oil Services ETF) and XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration ETF), putting his money behind his bullish oil thesis. These represent direct equity exposure to the energy sector breakout thesis.

🟢 [E2430] Oliver argues oil is 'off-the-page underpriced' relative to other commodities, the stock market, silver, and its own prior price highs. 'Major negative analyst assessment is very widespread that oil will stay low and likely go lower' — but the fundamental reality is extreme cheapness, not near-term news. This contrarian setup supports upside.

🟢 [E2429] Crude oil is poised for a major breakout. A monthly close above $63.01 (3-quarter average) would clear 18 months of resistance and 'the lid comes off.' Long-term momentum has already broken above a major downtrend but remains capped at the zero line. Oliver expects a '50% upward jolt well into the $90s' once the breakout occurs. Current price at $61.07.

🟢 [E2442] Upcoming silver miner earnings in early February will likely 'wake up many sluggish asset managers' to miners' profitability. Q4 average silver price was 'mid $40s' — earnings reports haven't yet reflected this reality. This catalyst may provide extra boost before any mid-point correction.

🟢 [E2440] SIL (silver miners) is outperforming XAU (gold miners), with breakout last month and acceleration this month. January performance: XAU up 26.9% but SIL up 33.5%. Oliver declares silver miners 'the better place to be' going forward within the monetary metals complex.

🟡 [E2441] Oliver monitors for a potential 'mid-point fake-out correction' in silver, similar to November 1979 and January 2011 episodes during prior explosive rallies. These 1-month stumbles caused fear but preceded even larger price explosions. Currently 'early on the clock' (month 2 of the rally), so such a correction is more likely in month 3-4. The 3%+ silver/gold spread level may mark a pause point.

🟢 [E2436] Gold is targeting $8,000 based on two independent measures: (1) annual momentum swing projections suggest 160% above the 36-month average by ~June equals $8,000; (2) historical precedent shows both prior bull markets (1976-1980, 2001-2011) produced eightfold gains from bear lows. From the December 2015 low at $1,050, an eightfold move implies $8,400+. Current gold at $4,979.

🟢 [E2437] Silver could reach $240-$500+ if it replicates historical relative-value relationships. At $8,000 gold: reaching 3% silver/gold spread (2011 level) implies $240 silver; reaching 6.5% spread (prior half-century high) implies $520+ silver. Silver's price has already exceeded the highs of the past half century, so exceeding prior spread highs is plausible.

🟢 [E2438] Silver's November 2025 breakout vs. gold (when silver was $57/oz) triggered a 'vertical' price move that few expected. Oliver sees the current XAU miners vs. gold breakout as analogous — 'expect this miners vs. gold breakout to yield not just miners doing better than gold, but the net price of miners gaining greatly and with some drama.'

🟢 [E2439] XAU (gold/silver miners index) is breaking out vs. gold after building a 'massive basing range' since 2015. Current spread at 8.73%; a monthly close above 8.62% clears 11 years of resistance. Next resistance requires 'more than a doubling of the current relative value of the miners to gold.' This is the 'best place to be' in the monetary metals complex.

🟢 [E2428] Commercial Real Estate REIT (RWR) has been comatose for years, failing to make new highs since late 2021. Annual momentum zero line ($94.73) must hold — a monthly close below would break the floor and start major downside. Quarterly momentum warning at $97 suggests annual momentum will probably follow. This may provide early warning for the broad market downturn.

🔴 [E2425] Capital One Financial faces major downside risk. The stock has held the 3-quarter average ($212.38) three times as support over two years, building a 'ripe' structure. A monthly close below $212.38 this quarter signals major downside starting. Current price at $217.30 is only 2.3% above the critical level.

🔴 [E2427] XLF (Financial Sector SPDR) shows bearish divergence: momentum failed to confirm new price highs in early 2025, merely returning to its prior point of trend breakage while price made 'marginal' new highs. The zero line at $52.01 is critical — a monthly close below it will cause price to 'abort back down into its prior ink.' Current price at $53.07 is only 2% above.

🔴 [E2426] Wells Fargo shows a 'very similar situation' to Capital One with major downside risk. A monthly close below $81.43 signals major downside starting. With stock at $86.96, the critical level is only 6.4% below. Oliver warns that when structures are this 'ripe,' even intramonth drops below support should be treated as failures.

🟢 [E2446] Ethereum futures at $2,939 is below the zero line/3-qtr avg of $3,190 with five days left in the month. A monthly close below $3,190 would confirm the negative trend. Oliver notes ETH 'clearly sought to hold that zero-line level last quarter' but the setup remains negative.

🟢 [E2444] Bitcoin faces resistance at $104K on any rally this quarter. BTC rallied from $90K to $98K this month then 'wobbled back off' and is now 'spinning its wheels' below $90K. Another month of 'fiddling around below the 3-qtr avg/zero line' likely before the next leg down to $60,000.

🟢 [E2445] Ethereum is also negative, though 'not as clear as Bitcoin's trend situation.' A monthly close below $3,190 (3-quarter average) this quarter confirms downside. With 5 days left in January, ETH at $2,939 is already 8% below the critical level. Price 'clearly sought to hold' the zero line last quarter but is now breaking.

🟢 [E2443] Bitcoin's quarterly momentum structure broke in November 2025 when price plummeted through the zero line, closing 10% below. This 'backbone fully broken' scenario mirrors early 2022: after that structure broke, Bitcoin rallied futilely for 3 months to the 'underside of what it had broken' then collapsed into late-2022 lows. Oliver expects BTC to reach at least $60,000 by mid-year.

🟢 [E2447] Oliver discloses personal positions heavily concentrated in monetary metals: PHYS, PSLV, SIL, multiple silver miners (PAAS, CDE, AG, HL, SVM, etc.), SLV calls for September, and leap calls on PAAS/CDE/AG/HL. Also holds oil-related positions via OIH and XOP. This reflects his conviction in the silver/gold miner rotation and oil breakout thesis.

💬 [E2448] Oliver's Momentum Structural Analysis framework uses momentum breakouts/breakdowns at 3-month, 40-week, 100-week, quarterly, and annual timeframes to identify trend changes before price chartists. He emphasizes that 'price is often lagged to its own momentum trend shifts' — allowing early positioning before consensus recognition.