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[E5103] Yield curve steepening historically recession signal but offset by AI productivity improvements and fiscal support. Different regime from past mean-reversion patterns.
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[E5106] Extreme sentiment weakness at market highs creates classic contrarian setup. Conference Board expectations fell 7 points, largest drop since COVID. Fear-greed index at 2023 lows.
supporting · 2025-03-02
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[E5100] Mag 7 15% correction significant but not indicative of continued selling absent recession. Breadth remains strong with equal weight S&P near all-time highs contradicting top-down crash narrative.
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[E5102] AI productivity boom driving profit margins expansion while employment shrinks. Structure of economy changing with top 40% driving spending, buffering job losses in lower income segments.
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[E5105] Bank sector outperforming relative to S&P showing confidence in system resilience. Regulatory tailwinds from deregulation supporting returns, though leverage loan market showing some stress.
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[E5101] No recession signal despite extreme sentiment weakness and profit margin warnings. Job market remains resilient with claims stable. Credit spreads not widening, indicating no systemic stress building.