🟢 [E4873] Market sold off on Sahm Rule trigger (2024 August), but lack of continuing claims confirmation invalidates recession signal. Visser dismisses recession panic as recency bias from recent weakness. Fundamentals remain stable without leading employment deterioration.

🔴 [E4872] Sahm Rule signals recession risk but lagging indicator breaks: continuing claims unchanged YoY despite Sahm trigger. Historical correlation between continuing claims and unemployment deterioration missing. Visser argues employment market has not deteriorated enough to justify recession call.