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[E5115] Payroll data weak but six-month diffusion at 48% historically means recession, yet structural changes in economy mean no traditional recession. Government jobs declining by design, healthcare jobs sustaining employment.
supporting · 2025-09-07
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[E5122] Regime shift signs intensifying with weak labor data, sticky inflation, and size factor rotation. Traditional macro models breaking down as structural changes in economy manifest.
supporting · 2025-09-07