🟢 [E9554] Gromen suggests potential G20 coordination to weaken USD following July 15-16 G20 meeting, which would benefit risk assets. Biden Administration political need for market rally before midterms creates dovish pressure that would weigh on dollar. Expects Fed pause to catalyze USD weakness.

🟢 [E9558] US Treasury increased quarterly borrowing estimate by 143% due to tax receipt shortfalls, with California and NYC seeing 20-31% y/y declines in tax revenues. Gromen argues this fiscal deterioration creates constraints that will force the Fed to pause tightening, as continued rate hikes would exacerbate government funding costs amid declining revenues.

🟢 [E9561] Gromen recommends owning commodities and industrials as part of Fed-pause positioning, while noting the physical economy shows conflicting signals — oil at pre-invasion levels yet labor market ostensibly strong. Tax receipt deterioration of 20-31% in major US jurisdictions suggests demand weakness that conflicts with headline employment strength, reinforcing the physical-vs-digital economy divergence thesis.

💬 [E9560] Gromen advises keeping majority of 'dry powder' reserved for potential chaos if Fed doesn't pivot to dovish stance, noting the strong jobs report makes further tightening more likely. Recommends owning commodities, industrials, gold, and Bitcoin but with cautious sizing, reflecting positioning for both a Fed pause rally and risk of continued tightening-driven selloff.

💬 [E9557] Oil prices falling to $88.12 (pre-Russian invasion levels) cited as key prerequisite for Fed pause that has been achieved. Strong labor market poses counter-risk via commodity reflation — if employment is genuinely strong, oil and inflation could re-accelerate, forcing continued hawkishness and delaying energy-supportive dovish pivot.

🟢 [E9555] Gromen recommends owning gold as part of positioning for expected Fed pause, alongside Bitcoin, commodities, and industrials. The thesis rests on declining tax receipts forcing fiscal constraints and eventual dovish pivot, which would benefit gold through dollar weakness and real rate compression.

💬 [E9553] Gromen pushed back his Fed pause expectation from end of August to end of September 2022 due to the jobs surprise, but maintains thesis that economic deterioration will force a dovish pivot. Jackson Hole (late August) identified as key catalyst where Powell could signal more dovish stance if data deteriorates. Recommends buying Eurodollar futures to bet on fewer Fed hikes.

🟡 [E9552] Gromen deeply skeptical of July 2022 528,000 jobs surprise, calling it contradictory to widespread weakness in housing, shipping rates from China, rising semiconductor inventories, and major retailer layoffs at Amazon and Walmart. Contacts described data as 'mathematically problematic' and 'the most preposterous jobs report in 35+ years,' questioning its credibility ahead of midterm elections.

🟢 [E9551] Gromen expects Fed forced to pause rate hikes by September 2022 despite strong July jobs report, citing declining tax receipts (California and NYC down 20-31% y/y) and oil prices falling to pre-Russian invasion levels ($88.12). US Treasury increased borrowing estimate by 143% due to receipt shortfalls, indicating fiscal constraints that will override hawkish impulses.

🟢 [E9556] Gromen recommends owning Bitcoin alongside gold and commodities in anticipation of Fed pause by September 2022. However, advises keeping majority of 'dry powder' reserved for potential chaos if Fed doesn't pivot, as the strong jobs report makes further tightening more likely in the near term, suggesting caution on sizing.

🟢 [E9559] Gromen identifies sharp contradiction between July 2022 jobs data and multiple real-economy indicators: housing construction sharp drop in June, declining shipping rates from China, rising semiconductor inventories, Amazon and Walmart layoffs. Argues government statistical reports can diverge from economic reality, especially under political pressure ahead of midterms, reflecting structural regime-change skepticism of official data.