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[E5123] Fed inflation forecast collapsed with PCE expectations moving higher across 2024 and 2025 projections. Fed pivoted from rate cut expectations to potential rate hike scenario by end of 2025.
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[E5125] Inflation surprise risk to upside if tariffs maintained and gas prices spike. Current fixing rates showing 35-50 bps monthly prints annualizing to 5-6%. Market not pricing inflation upside tail risk.
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[E5126] Breadth capitulation on worst day in 90 days historically leads to 5% median returns within 2 months. Technical setup for bounce despite headwinds from inflation and rate risks.
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[E5129] Energy via Chevron positioned as power/AI capex play vs traditional energy cycle. Relative performance vs software stocks shows structural repositioning favoring energy infrastructure.
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[E5128] Full self-driving using cameras and learning from experience versus sensors marks inflection in AI reasoning. Humanoid development dependent on Chinese actuator supply chain vulnerability.
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[E5124] Correction consolidation expected rather than crash. Sentiment remains elevated, requiring more than single capitulation day. Market consolidating near highs before next move up or deeper pullback.
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[E5127] AI capex secular theme unaffected by correction. Google maintaining $75B AI spending, Nvidia bringing production back onshore. Tariff disruption temporary vs AI productivity permanent.