🟢 [E9350] China is pursuing multi-currency energy pricing with gold settlement through the petroyuan, aiming to price oil in renminbi on Shanghai exchanges by 2025. This represents a structural alternative to the USD-recycling petrodollar system. Gromen cites 1980 BIS Chair Jelle Zijlstra warning that the international financial system could not survive a third oil crisis due to inability to recycle petrodollars.

🟡 [E9349] Gromen presents a nuanced dollar view: USD may strengthen short-term as rising global funding costs favor dollar strength amid sovereign debt concerns, but structurally the dollar faces headwinds from China's multi-currency energy pricing with gold settlement (petroyuan), reduced USD recycling, and the unsustainability of financing 72% of global GDP growth through USD-denominated deficits.

🟢 [E9346] BOJ raised JGB yield ceilings and had to buy 16.2 trillion yen in JGBs to defend the new cap. ECB promised significant rate hikes, making FX-hedged 10-year UST yields 200-340 basis points below local bond yields. This incentivizes capital repatriation from US Treasuries just as US financing needs surge, threatening UST demand from the two largest foreign holders.

🟢 [E9345] Gromen argues the end of negative nominal rates on global USD debt marks the beginning of a sovereign debt crisis, not a return to normalcy. With US debt/GDP at 125% and federal deficits projected at 72% of global GDP growth in 2023, the Fed faces a binary choice: resume massive QE or allow a debt death spiral. A mere 2.4% Fed balance sheet reduction in 2022 caused the worst combined stock/bond performance since 1871.

🟢 [E9354] Peak cheap energy compounds systemic risks as US shale decline rates accelerate at 6.1% monthly while representing 90% of global oil growth over the past decade. Combined with 10-15% cost inflation reducing new investment, this creates structural commodity inflation. The 1980 BIS warning about a third oil crisis making petrodollar recycling impossible is cited as directly relevant to current conditions.

🟢 [E9355] Gromen is bearish on most assets short-term, noting the 2022 experience where a mere 2.4% Fed balance sheet reduction caused the worst combined stock and bond performance since 1871. With projected deficits at 72% of global GDP growth in 2023 (vs 32% in 2022), conditions are set to be far worse absent a policy pivot. Tesla is specifically named among vulnerable assets.

🟢 [E9348] US shale production is declining at 6.1% per month as of January 2023, accelerating from 5.8% five months earlier. US shale provided 90% of global oil output growth over the past decade. Reduced investment due to 10-15% cost inflation means this decline may persist, creating structural supply deficit as the peak cheap energy era ends.

🟢 [E9351] Gold is positioned as the ultimate reserve asset amid sovereign debt concerns. China's energy de-dollarization strategy involves gold settlement for oil trades, while the binary outcome for sovereign debt (inflation or default/financial repression) favors gold in either scenario. Rising global funding costs and the end of negative rates compound the case for gold as a store of value.

🟢 [E9353] Gromen flags Blackstone's need to offer extraordinary terms to attract investment as 'terrifying,' signaling stress in private credit markets. This is cited as evidence that the tightening cycle is already creating cracks in alternative credit structures, with the implication that private markets cannot absorb sovereign financing needs as public markets deteriorate.

🟢 [E9347] Gromen projects US federal deficits will represent 72% of global GDP growth in 2023, more than double the 32% ratio in 2022. There is insufficient private sector balance sheet capacity to finance this without either higher yields or Fed intervention. Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse is quoted saying 'More QE is a-comin'...' as the system cannot absorb these financing needs without central bank liquidity.

🟢 [E9352] Gromen frames the current regime through the lens of sovereign debt reduction history, noting only four paths exist: growth, austerity, explicit default, or financial repression. With debt/GDP at 125% and deficits at 72% of global GDP growth, the outcome becomes binary — inflation or default. The end of negative rates eliminates the possibility of a soft landing in the US and global economy.

💬 [E9356] China reopening is identified as a potential counter-thesis that could provide a global growth engine, but Gromen frames China primarily through the lens of de-dollarization and energy strategy rather than equity opportunity. Faster-than-expected Chinese economic recovery is listed as a risk to the bearish thesis rather than a standalone investment case.