🟢 [E318] Jay Sellick thesis of structural inflation (bond bear market, $320T debt, fiscal deficits, commodity supply cycles) and Jordi Visser's AI deflation thesis are both correct. Physical goods inflationary, cognitive labour deflationary. Fed trapped - can't raise for commodities or cut for services.

🟢 [E725] The two theses (inflation and deflation) are mutually reinforcing at portfolio level. Gold performs in inflationary scenario as hard asset. Gold performs in deflationary-recession scenario as safe haven. Range of outcomes actually bad for gold is narrow.

🟢 [E713] AI tsunami will be enormously deflationary. What we see in credit and white-collar employment is leading edge of wave displacing lawyers, analysts, accountants, consultants, software developers - high-income, high-spending people. When their purchasing power goes, demand crater is significant.