🟢 [E8540] Gromen recommends US industrial equities with electrical infrastructure exposure as beneficiaries of USD devaluation and reindustrialization. If the US must rebuild domestic supply chains to reduce China dependence, this implies massive demand for copper and specialty commodities needed for electrical infrastructure buildout, reinforcing structural supply deficit concerns.

🟢 [E8531] The 'China as next Japan' thesis is fundamentally flawed because unlike 1980s Japan which couldn't fight without the US, today the US cannot fight against China without Chinese supply chains. Raytheon admits: 'We can de-risk but not decouple... it would take many years to re-establish capability domestically.' The US is 'borrowing money from China, to build weapons to face down China, using components made in China.'

🟢 [E8527] Gromen argues USD devaluation is mathematically necessary for the US to compete with China, following the 1985 Plaza Accord playbook where the USD was devalued 46% against the JPY. Today's situation is more extreme because US defense contractors like Raytheon admit they cannot fight a war against China without Chinese supply chains, making a massive USD devaluation the likely policy response to restore competitiveness.

🟢 [E8528] US TBTF institutions are positioning for USD devaluation: BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin ETF after CEO Fink previously dismissed crypto, and JPMorgan became GLD custodian after their metals desk was criminally convicted for price manipulation. Gromen interprets these moves as institutional preparation for monetary system restructuring and dollar weakness.

💬 [E8537] US defense supply chain dependence on China is a critical vulnerability. Raytheon admits it cannot produce weapons systems without Chinese components, and re-establishing domestic or allied manufacturing capability would take 'many many years.' This structural dependence limits US military options and creates a window for China to implement monetary system changes without facing military conflict.

🟢 [E8530] Gromen states explicitly that 'if the US wishes to win the so-called Great Power Competition against China, the US bond market has to die on a real basis.' This implies deliberate negative real yields and financial repression are necessary policy outcomes, destroying Treasury bond holders' purchasing power to fund reindustrialization and military competitiveness.

🟢 [E8535] Gromen's thesis supports the physical vs digital economy divergence: USD devaluation is needed precisely because the US lost physical industrial capacity to China while maintaining financial/digital economy dominance. He recommends physical assets (gold, energy commodities, industrial equities with electrical infrastructure exposure) over financial assets, expecting the real economy to outperform.

🟢 [E8532] US SPR releases and Fed rate hikes are causing US shale production to roll over, which supplied 90% of global oil growth in the prior decade. Gromen expects this to force energy prices higher, accelerating inflation pressures. He recommends energy-related commodities as core holdings for the USD devaluation scenario.

🟢 [E8529] Central banks globally are accumulating gold at record pace, which Gromen interprets as preparation for monetary system restructuring. He recommends gold and gold miners as core holdings for a USD devaluation scenario, held unlevered while earning 5% on cash waiting for policy shifts.

🟢 [E8539] Gromen identifies a potential deflationary credit crunch risk in 2H 2023 as a counter-thesis, but argues USD devaluation pressures will ultimately overwhelm deflation. The Fed signaling the end of inflation fighting marks a regime shift toward accommodative policy, which would expand global liquidity and benefit hard assets. He recommends earning 5% on cash while waiting for the policy shift to materialize.

🟡 [E8534] Gromen interprets BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF filing and JPMorgan's gold custodial positioning as evidence that TBTF institutions are preparing for USD devaluation and monetary system restructuring. However, this raises questions about whether ETF structures will channel demand or suppress price discovery, given JPMorgan's criminal conviction for metals price manipulation while serving as GLD custodian.

🔴 [E8533] Gromen is bullish on Bitcoin as a USD devaluation hedge, recommending it alongside gold and energy commodities. He notes BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF filing as evidence that major financial institutions are positioning for monetary system change, suggesting the bear phase thesis may be undermined by institutional adoption catalysts.

🟢 [E8536] Gromen frames the current period as analogous to the pre-Plaza Accord era (early 1980s) where the US must devalue its currency to restore competitiveness. The Fed signaling the end of its inflation fight marks the potential start of a USD devaluation campaign, representing a structural regime change from the strong-dollar policy of the prior 40 years.

💬 [E8538] Gromen's thesis implies China holds significant leverage over the US due to supply chain dependence, particularly in defense manufacturing. China has an open window to implement monetary system changes without military conflict. If the US must devalue the dollar to compete, Chinese assets denominated in CNY could benefit from relative currency appreciation, similar to how the Plaza Accord strengthened the JPY.