🟢 [E7281] Gromen highlights the collapse of foreign central bank UST purchases from 50%+ to just 5% of issuance as a structural shift undermining US financial hegemony. Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China are named as key entities in this realignment. Japan's potential $100B UST sale to defend JPY and broader de-dollarisation dynamics mean the US can no longer rely on foreign capital recycling to fund its twin deficits.

🟢 [E7278] Gromen argues Yellen's plan to drive DXY to 110+ will catastrophically backfire because structural conditions differ from her successful 2012-2013 playbook: US debt/GDP now 125% vs 98%, foreign central bank UST purchases down to 5% from 50%+, and emerging Treasury market stress. A heavily-indebted twin deficit economy approaching recession with simultaneous equity and bond selloffs signals a balance of payments crisis that undermines the strong dollar policy.

🟢 [E7277] Gromen warns of a worsening US balance of payments crisis as both equities and bonds sell off simultaneously — only two prior days in 25 years saw S&P 500 down 3% and 10y USTs down 1%. Treasury settlement fails hit $507B in early April 2022, highest since March 2020, indicating something is broken in UST market plumbing. Japan may sell up to $100B of its $1.3T UST holdings to defend JPY, adding supply pressure as foreign central bank UST purchases collapsed from 50%+ to 5% of issuance.

🟢 [E7285] Gromen recommends maximum defensive positioning for monthly traders: cash, short-term USTs, and gold as S&P 500 experiences sharp selloffs concurrent with Treasury weakness. For longer-term investors, he advises building cash and waiting for the forced Fed reversal before fully deploying into commodities, industrials, real estate, and Bitcoin. The rare simultaneous equity-bond selloff signals elevated correction risk.

🟢 [E7283] Gromen identifies energy infrastructure as a beneficiary of persistent supply shortages and geopolitical shifts. Energy is included in his recommended longer-term positioning alongside commodities and industrials, expected to outperform once the Fed is forced to reverse tightening policy. The geopolitical backdrop involving Russia and Saudi Arabia reinforces structural supply deficit dynamics.

🟢 [E7280] Gromen recommends gold as a core defensive holding in both monthly trader and longer-term investor portfolios amid the developing US balance of payments crisis. Gold is positioned alongside cash and short-term USTs as maximum defensive positioning for monthly traders, and as a key accumulation asset for longer-term investors anticipating a forced Fed reversal and eventual liquidity injection.

🟢 [E7286] Credit market deterioration is identified as a key catalyst: distressed debt doubled to $27B and high-yield issuance windows are closing as of May 2022. This credit stress, combined with Treasury market settlement fails at $507B, suggests contagion risk from tightening financial conditions that could force the Fed to reverse course or risk systemic collapse.

🟢 [E7279] Gromen expects the Fed will be forced to reverse tightening by end of Q3 2022 as markets sell both stocks and bonds simultaneously. Key catalysts include Treasury market stress ($507B in fails), credit deterioration (distressed debt doubled to $27B, HY issuance window closing), and midterm election pressure. Without reversal, the financial system risks chaotic collapse rather than orderly pivot. A US recession would increase UST issuance by $700B-$2.3T at the worst possible time for demand.

🔴 [E7282] Despite Bitcoin being in a bearish phase in mid-2022, Gromen recommends holding Bitcoin as part of longer-term investor positioning alongside commodities, industrials, and real estate, anticipating it will benefit from the eventual forced Fed pivot and liquidity injection expected by end of Q3 2022. This challenges the near-term bear thesis by framing the downturn as a buying opportunity ahead of policy reversal.

🟢 [E7284] Gromen frames the May 2022 macro regime as a balance of payments crisis in a heavily-indebted twin deficit economy, distinct from normal tightening cycles. He contrasts current structural conditions (125% debt/GDP, 5% foreign UST demand) with 2012-2013 (98% debt/GDP, 50%+ foreign demand) to argue the same playbook cannot work. The simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds — only two prior occurrences in 25 years — signals regime change requiring a policy framework shift.